Global trade can amplify economic development and poverty alleviation. Capable leaders are required to put in place enabling conditions for trade, but currently these skills are underprovided in developing countries. For philanthropists, investing in trade leadership talent through graduate-level scholarships is an opportunity to make meaningful contributions that can multiply and sustain global economic development.

The International Council of Chemical Associations (ICCA) commissioned Oxford Economics to undertake a research program to explore the socio-economic and environmental implications of policy interventions that could be used to reduce plastic pollution, with a focus on a global production cap on primary plastic polymers.

The impact of Red Sea shipping disruption on the eurozone economy continues to be limited, in line with our baseline view. Our new Eurozone Supply Stress Indicator suggests that supply pressures have returned to normal following a period of easing in 2023.

World goods trade declined in 2023, reversing the trend of 2022. This development points to the resumption of the decade-long pattern of slow global trade growth relative to GDP. Recent trade trends imply downside growth risks for 2024 and the longer-term outlook still looks to be one characterised by ‘slowbalisation’, especially with protectionism a rising issue.

Industrial production in China is forecast to post growth of 5% in 2024, for the second year in a row. Its performance will outstrip the United States and an anaemic expansion in Europe, and raises the prospect of a renewed tensions between East and West.

China has been accused of dumping stock onto the European market within the automotive, metals and chemicals sectors with the possibility of the EU placing tariffs on these products. Dumping is defined as a company exporting at a price lower than its domestic price and requires greater evidence than just a surge in imports, which will take time to gather and assess

This report explores the global graphite market, rationales for trade action on Chinese graphite, and the history of Section 301 tariffs on US imports of graphite anode material from China.

We project Japan’s services trade balance will remain in deficit over the coming years as a trend increase in the import of digital-related services will outweigh a rising travel services surplus that has been driven by inbound tourists.

Disruption to shipping through the Red Sea now looks likely to keep transport costs elevated at least for the next few months. We estimate this will result in a peak lift of 0.3ppts to eurozone headline and 0.4ppts to core inflation in 2024, with the brunt of the impact coming in H2.

marine industry makes a major contribution to the UK economy, supporting both economic activity and employment, and is also economically important for the role it plays in boosting connectivity, bringing trade, tourism, and energy to the UK.

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Research Briefing | Jan 29, 2024

Global Scenarios Service: Middle East Escalation

Global growth prospects for the year ahead remain weak. We continue to see a prolonged period of steady and unspectacular growth over the coming quarters, despite a slight upward revision to our baseline forecast in the period since our previous Global Scenarios Service report.

Risks to global growth lie to the downside. Recent Global Risk Surveys suggest that businesses are particularly concerned by the potential fall-out from geopolitical tensions, both in the Middle East and between China and Taiwan, and the risk that interest rates stay higher for longer.

Our latest baseline forecast is for world GDP growth of only 2.0% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025.

This Quarters risk scenarios:

Middle East Escalation – Global growth falters as energy supply disruption drives oil prices to $150pb, stock markets weaken, and policy rates rise further amid higher near-term inflation.
Increased China-Taiwan tensions – Tensions weigh persistently on the global economy as Taiwan and its allies raise trade and technological barriers against China and investor sentiment worsens amid conflict fears.
Higher for longer interest rates – A protracted period of high interest rates weighs on stock markets and house prices, resulting in tighter credit conditions and several years of sub-par growth.
Excess savings run-down – Early monetary policy loosening fuels an unwind of household savings built up during the pandemic, resulting in a more robust consumer-led recovery.

To find out more, fill in the form to download the executive summary of this quarter’s Global Scenarios report.

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Research Briefing | Jan 29, 2024

Global Scenarios Service: Middle East Escalation

Our latest baseline forecast is for world GDP growth of only 2.0% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025.

This Quarters risk scenarios:

Middle East Escalation – Global growth falters as energy supply disruption drives oil prices to $150pb, stock markets weaken, and policy rates rise further amid higher near-term inflation.
Increased China-Taiwan tensions – Tensions weigh persistently on the global economy as Taiwan and its allies raise trade and technological barriers against China and investor sentiment worsens amid conflict fears.
Higher for longer interest rates – A protracted period of high interest rates weighs on stock markets and house prices, resulting in tighter credit conditions and several years of sub-par growth.
Excess savings run-down – Early monetary policy loosening fuels an unwind of household savings built up during the pandemic, resulting in a more robust consumer-led recovery.

To find out more, fill in the form to download the executive summary of this quarter’s Global Scenarios report.

Despite talk of deglobalisation, a quantitative analysis of intermediate goods show global supply chains have continued to expand in the last five years. Amid a volatile world economy, swiftly evolving supply chains are minting new winners and losers in global trade.

The attacks on container ships by Houthi militants have, once again, revealed the underlying fragility of the international supply chains upon which the global economy relies. The longer the attacks go on and the more ocean freight carriers decide to avoid transit through the Suez Canal, the greater the disruptive effects will end up being.

We assume the disruption to shipping caused by maritime attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea will be relatively short-lived and the recent spike in sea freight prices will reverse. While there will be near-term impacts for some firms and sectors, these won’t be enough to shift our baseline economic or inflation forecasts to any meaningful extent.

The miracle growth story has further to unfold

Vietnam’s GDP grew by an average rate of 7% annually in the past three decades, surpassing all its ASEAN regional peers. Although 2023 and 2024 are set to see Vietnam’s weakest growth outside of Covid years, we think the pain is short-term.

Chip upcycle is a bright spot, albeit still a dim one

The chip sector is profoundly important in some Asian countries, given their role in the global semiconductor supply chain. As such, the ongoing recovery, albeit gradual, will provide some support to these economies amid the slowing global economy and tight domestic monetary policies.

This study provides rigorous analysis to inform policymakers on the potential impact of an escalation in US-China tariffs. We examine how removing China’s Permanent Normalized Trade Relations (PNTR) status would affect the US economy, finding that tariffs would cause substantial output and job losses.

Three key idiosyncrasies in Asian trade and why they matter

Idiosyncrasies in recent Asian trade data suggest that country-specific factors are becoming more influential and causing some countries’ exports to buck cyclical trends. If that continues, the fortunes of regional exporters will diverge further in 2024, though we still think the overall export trend will be subdued.

The global economy has been in a ‘slowbalisation’ in recent years. For real estate investors in AEs, this policy shift could present compelling long-term opportunities in the industrial sector.

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Research Briefing | Sep 21, 2023

Global Scenarios Service: Taiwan Tensions

Global economic prospects remain relatively subdued. The peak impact of past policy tightening has yet to be fully felt in the advanced economies and China is expected to underperform relative to consensus.

Risks to global growth appear to lie to the downside. The peak impact of past tightening and higher-for-longer policy rates could prove more substantial than expected. This could exacerbate existing banking system risks.

Our latest baseline forecast is for world GDP growth of 2.0% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025. This is a weaker outlook than anticipated in May.

This quarter’s scenarios quantify key risks to the global economy. These relate primarily to geopolitical tensions, the fall-out from monetary policy tightening, and the degree of consumer caution.

To find out more, fill in the form to download the executive summary of this quarter’s Global Scenarios report.

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Research Briefing | Sep 21, 2023

Global Scenarios Service: Taiwan Tensions

Our latest baseline forecast is for world GDP growth of 2.0% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025. This is a weaker outlook than anticipated in May.

This quarter’s scenarios quantify key risks to the global economy. These relate primarily to geopolitical tensions, the fall-out from monetary policy tightening, and the degree of consumer caution.

To find out more, fill in the form to download the executive summary of this quarter’s Global Scenarios report.

Global Scenarios Service: Taiwan Tensions

Global Scenarios Service: Taiwan Tensions

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