Research Briefing
The macro implications of replacing US IEEPA tariffs with a global 15% tariff are minor at best, according to our...
Economic growth
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Research Briefing
The past year has seen a reshaping of long-run risks, with rising trade uncertainty, threats of US isolationism, and accelerating...
Research Briefing
The story this year remains global divergence. We are above consensus with our forecasts for the US, China and some...
Research Briefing
Strong services growth and industrial specialisation are strengthening Birmingham’s economy, yet structural challenges remain—will the city be able to sustain...
Research Briefing
AI spending boosted US GDP by 0.4ppts in 2025 and we expect it to add a similar amount this year.
The Supreme court ruling on tariffs lowers the effective tariff rate down sharply. In this report, we discuss its implications.
米国を中心としたAI投資ブームはトランプ関税ショックを受けた世界経済の救世主となりましたが、その持続性を巡る懸念は高まっています。今後のAI普及ペースに加え、それが経済全体の生産性をどの程度高めるかについても大きな不確実性があります。 また、AIによる労働代替は雇用を脅かしているのではないのか、次期FRB議長に指名されたウォーシュ氏が重視するAIのディスインフレ効果は利下げを正当化するのかなど、AIとマクロ経済を巡る議論は盛り上がる一方です。米国を中心としたAI投資ブームはトランプ関税ショックを受けた世界経済の救世主となりましたが、その持続性を巡る懸念は高まっています。今後のAI普及ペースに加え、それが経済全体の生産性をどの程度高めるかについても大きな不確実性があります。
Research Briefing
Polish cities have been among the fastest-growing in Europe over the past 25 years, and we expect Warsaw—along with Kraków,...
Research Briefing
With net migration set to fall to its lowest level since 1997, the UK faces weaker growth and higher borrowing....
Webinar
AI infrastructure spending has dominated U.S. industrial output, creating a split between tech-focused sectors and the rest of the economy....
In this blog, we address the key questions raised on economic growth, AI adoption, trade policy during our Global Economic...
Recent developments such as rising US isolationism and the AI investment boom could materially change long-term growth prospects. In this...
Consulting Report
This report assesses the Philippines’ agri-food system, from agricultural production and food and beverage (F&B) manufacturing, to the wholesale, retail,...
This report focuses on the quantum computing sector in Sussex and Greater Brighton, and its potential contribution to the South...
Navigate long-term uncertainty and assess key risks shaping the business environment.
Research Briefing
Despite the new government's 2026 budget being slightly more timid than anticipated, we don't plan major changes to our outlook....
As confidence of the US’ role as the anchor of the international order weakens, our long-term Global Rebalance scenario explores...
Despite an environment of rising protectionism and political volatility, the global economy has proved remarkably resilient.
We assess how China’s manufacturing resilience and the AI boom are reshaping regional supply chains. Despite US tariffs, overseas market...
Research Briefing
AI-related investment is unlikely to be a near-term driver of GDP growth in the EU, unlike the US where it...
