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Unlike past recovery cycles, the sharp expected rebound in China's private consumption may not result in surging imports. Our updated forecast now sees 8% plus consumption growth in 2023, much of it will be frontloaded, with the sequential quarterly pace winding down by...

Once pent-up demand from post-lockdown fades, we think that Asian economies will settle at lower GDP growth and higher inflation than our pre-pandemic forecasts. This means nominal interest rates are also likely to stay high in 2023-2024.