Research Briefing | Apr 26, 2023

Weaker US banking sector hurts enterprise technology spending

Oxford Economics has introduced its new Tech Spend Monitor that provides forecasts of US spending on enterprise technology by industry. Our baseline forecast shows that business tech spending will fall -1.2% in the second half of 2023, after rising over 10% on average during 2021-2022. Under a scenario with more persistent inflation and a tougher policy stance than seen in the baseline, the spend on tech products will fall by a larger -2.5% in H2 2023.

What you will learn:

  • Recent weakness in the US banking sector will exacerbate the slowdown, as their tech spending is forecast to decline -2% over the final two quarters of 2023.
  • While the magnitude of decline in the baseline forecast will look similar to previous episodes, the two-quarter duration of the fall will be longer than recent downturns in 2015 and 2019.
  • Several services sectors including transportation, distribution, health care and entertainment are now leading the gains in spending on enterprise technology.
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