Research Briefing
A jobless expansion, the growing role of financial wealth, and the impact of fiscal policy will widen the bifurcation of...
Debt and savings
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Research Briefing
Demographic trends imply emerging market savings rates are approaching multi-decade peaks and will only fall marginally over the next few...
The Canadian economy avoided a technical recession in 2025 and only meagre advances are likely well into early 2026. Game-changing...
We expect an above-consensus increase in US consumer spending growth next year, but the state of the consumer is increasingly...
Research Briefing
Unemployment is rising and wage growth is declining for young adults, which could have a long-term scarring impact. Weak labor...
Research Briefing
Diverging fortunes across age and income groups reveal both resilience and fragility in the US consumer outlook.
Research Briefing
Large primary deficits make for a concerning fiscal outlook
Research Briefing
NATO's commitment to spend 5% of GDP annually on defence by 2035 is broadly in line with the change to...
Research Briefing
The end of student loan forbearance is expected to have minimal effect on consumer spending, though delinquencies and credit score...
Research Briefing
Wealth effects proved to be a quite reliable tailwind to consumer spending this cycle.
Research Briefing
As consumer sentiment deteriorated, concerns about the outlook for consumer spending increased. While there's a statistically significant relationship between sentiment...
Research Briefing
The resilience of consumption is essential to support sustained wage-driven inflation and the Bank of Japan's rate hikes. We see...
Research Briefing
For many households, tax refunds represent the biggest cash-flow event of the year. It's early, but we think this will...
Consulting Report
The EU VAT Gap 2024 report offers an extensive analysis of the value-added tax (VAT) compliance and policy gaps across...
Research Briefing
We estimate that Japan's nominal neutral interest rate – the rate consistent with monetary policy that is neither stimulative nor...
Consulting Report
Lending to SMEs by Funding Circle supported a £6.9 billion contribution to UK GDP, sustained over 95,800 jobs, and was...
Consulting Report
Oxford Economics were commissioned by British Gas to undertake a social return on investment analysis of the British Gas Energy...
Research Briefing
Despite last summer's US Supreme Court decision, the Biden administration has forgiven $153bn in student loan debt through piecemeal actions....
Research Briefing
In this presentation deck, we grappled with some of the Africa’s most pressing issues for 2024 and beyond. We explored...
Research Briefing
We expect weak consumer spending in the eurozone to persist throughout 2023 and into early 2024. Consumption has mainly been...
