US digital tech investment could generate boost to GDP

Our analysis suggests that rising digital technology investment in the United States could significantly exceed consensus growth expectations for 2026. While current forecasts assume investment as a share of GDP remains steady, an upswing could deliver a substantial boost to the broader economy.

• US GDP growth is projected at 2.3% in 2026, above the consensus estimate of 1.7%, even without additional increases in digital tech investment.
• If tech capital spending continues to grow sharply, mirroring the 1990s upswing, US GDP could surge to around 3% next year.
• The import-intensive nature of AI and tech spending would generate positive spillovers globally, benefiting Asian economies that produce semiconductors and computer equipment the most.
• Inflationary pressures from an extended AI investment boom are expected to be modest, though strong growth and tighter labor markets could influence Federal Reserve policy through 2026.