OE Logo
    Request a trial

      Turkey

      Turkey lira

      We are cautiously optimistic on the Turkish lira and have recently moved the currency to an overweight in our Emerging Market portfolio. Our new call is supported by the central bank’s more orthodox stance and the authorities’ preference for real appreciation of the lira.

      Emerging market (EM) central banks’ credibility to restrain inflation over the medium-term horizon remains intact despite the tests it’s been subjected to in an age of supply shocks and massive income disappointments – and despite name-calling by some banks’ political masters.

      This report examines the size of the illicit tobacco market in Türkiye as well as and the impact it has on government tax revenue. Commissioned by Philip Morris International, this report particularly highlights the rising prevalence of cut tobacco, whose consumption almost doubled between 2019 and 2021. Total tax loss due to illicit consumption of tobacco products reached TL 18,327mn in 2021, doubling from TL 9,744mn in 2019. Illicit cut tobacco accounted for 86.4-95.9% of annual tax loss during this period.

      The powerful earthquakes that hit Turkey and Syria on February 6 have caused a human tragedy; at the time of writing, over 11000 people have been confirmed dead and the toll is likely to rise. The human cost will be accompanied by vast economic damage, the scale of which will take time to become clear.

      In a tough global environment, we are below consensus on advanced economy growth and anticipate most will fall into recession in 2023.

      Europe enjoyed a strong tourism rebound over the summer months as Covid-19 disruptions abated. However, the region was not exempt from turmoil arising from the prolonged war in Ukraine, labour shortages, elevated food and energy prices, and stalling economic growth.

      Russia’s quick U-turn over its earlier decision to suspend participation in the Black Sea grain initiative suggests that pressure from emerging economies got the upper hand over Russia’s efforts to weaken Ukraine’s economy.

      Russia’s decision to halt its participation in the UN-brokered Black Sea grain deal risks a renewal of global food price pressures and could prove damaging to Ukraine’s agricultural output long term.

      Grain
      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Aug 22, 2022

      Analysing the likely effects of the Istanbul grain deal

      Ipad Frame instanbul

      If successful, the Turkey-brokered deal between Russia and Ukraine to unblock Ukraine’s ports and facilitate grain exports would be highly beneficial for the Ukrainian and global economies. However, numerous risks – both political and operational – may jeopardise the success of this deal in the medium term.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Aug 22, 2022

      Analysing the likely effects of the Istanbul grain deal

      Ipad Frame instanbul

      If successful, the Turkey-brokered deal between Russia and Ukraine to unblock Ukraine’s ports and facilitate grain exports would be highly beneficial for the Ukrainian and global economies. However, numerous risks – both political and operational – may jeopardise the success of this deal in the medium term.

      Read more

      Black sea
      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jul 21, 2022

      All eyes on the Black Sea in the face of a looming food crisis

      All eyes on the Black Sea in the face of a looming food crisis


      With its Black Sea ports under blockade, Ukraine’s grain silos are brimming with millions of tons of cereals, with no way of being exported. Meanwhile, developing countries dependent on grain from Ukraine face a looming food crisis. Between January and April this year, Ukraine’s exports plunged 58% y/y in terms of volume – meaning that during the period the world was shy some 7% of its normal trade levels of cereals, 3% of sunflower oil, and 2.2% of ferrous metals. And since then, the shortage has only grown.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jul 21, 2022

      All eyes on the Black Sea in the face of a looming food crisis

      All eyes on the Black Sea in the face of a looming food crisis


      With its Black Sea ports under blockade, Ukraine’s grain silos are brimming with millions of tons of cereals, with no way of being exported. Meanwhile, developing countries dependent on grain from Ukraine face a looming food crisis. Between January and April this year, Ukraine’s exports plunged 58% y/y in terms of volume – meaning that during the period the world was shy some 7% of its normal trade levels of cereals, 3% of sunflower oil, and 2.2% of ferrous metals. And since then, the shortage has only grown.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Feb 25, 2022

      Turkey’s outlook sours after Russia invades Ukraine

      Turkey will take a hit from the Russian invasion of Ukraine through three main channels – tourism, energy prices and financial market disruption – all of which will put further stress on price and financial stability. Altogether, we estimate the impact may shave 0.4ppts from our 2022 growth forecast of 2.5% for Turkey.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Feb 25, 2022

      Turkey’s outlook sours after Russia invades Ukraine

      Turkey will take a hit from the Russian invasion of Ukraine through three main channels – tourism, energy prices and financial market disruption – all of which will put further stress on price and financial stability. Altogether, we estimate the impact may shave 0.4ppts from our 2022 growth forecast of 2.5% for Turkey.

      Read more

      Turkey: Why the lira scheme may do more harm than good
      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing

      Why the Turkish lira scheme may do more harm than good

      Turkey | Why the lira scheme may do more harm than good

      Turkey’s unpredictable macro policies could leave the treasury with a sizeable bill stemming from FX-protected lira deposits. The baseline for public finances, however, remains benign for now; they compare favourably with most emerging markets (EMs).

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing

      Why the Turkish lira scheme may do more harm than good

      Turkey | Why the lira scheme may do more harm than good

      Turkey’s unpredictable macro policies could leave the treasury with a sizeable bill stemming from FX-protected lira deposits. The baseline for public finances, however, remains benign for now; they compare favourably with most emerging markets (EMs).

      Read more

      Aerial view of cityscape at nightime burj khalifa
      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Nov 18, 2021

      UAE and Qatar have the highest FDI attractiveness

      MENA | UAE and Qatar have the highest FDI attractiveness

      FDI is in an important pillar of growth and diversification agendas across the MENA region and, in particular, in the GCC. Several countries have set ambitious targets for FDI that see significant increases on FDI from the pre-Covid years.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Nov 18, 2021

      UAE and Qatar have the highest FDI attractiveness

      MENA | UAE and Qatar have the highest FDI attractiveness

      FDI is in an important pillar of growth and diversification agendas across the MENA region and, in particular, in the GCC. Several countries have set ambitious targets for FDI that see significant increases on FDI from the pre-Covid years.

      Read more