Turkey’s outlook sours after Russia invades Ukraine
Turkey will take a hit from the Russian invasion of Ukraine through three main channels – tourism, energy prices and financial market disruption – all of which will put further stress on price and financial stability. Altogether, we estimate the impact may shave 0.4ppts from our 2022 growth forecast of 2.5% for Turkey.
What you will learn:
- The biggest impact will be on tourism – in 2021 arrivals from Russia accounted for 19% of the total and Ukraine 8.3% – adding to Turkey’s external vulnerability.
- The surge in energy prices will further squeeze household incomes via higher import costs, with the lira vulnerable, and inflation, which is already at a two-decade high of nearly 50%.
- We do not anticipate Russia’s energy supply to Turkey to be interrupted.
Tags:
Related research
Post
No shelter from the external storm for CEE economies
The small, open economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are struggling against three external headwinds simultaneously: stuttering German industry, protectionist US trade policy, and overcapacity in China's manufacturing sector.
Find Out More
Post
Blanket tariffs from Trump drag down industrial prospects | Industry Forecast Highlights
The impact of global tariffs, a high degree of policy uncertainty, and higher for longer interest rates are expected to hit industry—we have pushed down our 2025 global industrial production growth forecast by 0.5ppts since our Q4 2024 update.
Find Out More
Post
Japan’s on course for July rate hike, but risk of June increases
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its policy rate at 0.50% at Wednesday's meeting, as expected. Despite a marginally higher increase in pay than last year at the first round of the spring wage negotiations, our baseline view is for the BoJ to hike its policy rate only gradually due to concerns about the capacity of small firms to raise wages and the lacklustre rate of consumption.
Find Out More