Turkey’s outlook sours after Russia invades Ukraine
Turkey will take a hit from the Russian invasion of Ukraine through three main channels – tourism, energy prices and financial market disruption – all of which will put further stress on price and financial stability. Altogether, we estimate the impact may shave 0.4ppts from our 2022 growth forecast of 2.5% for Turkey.
What you will learn:
- The biggest impact will be on tourism – in 2021 arrivals from Russia accounted for 19% of the total and Ukraine 8.3% – adding to Turkey’s external vulnerability.
- The surge in energy prices will further squeeze household incomes via higher import costs, with the lira vulnerable, and inflation, which is already at a two-decade high of nearly 50%.
- We do not anticipate Russia’s energy supply to Turkey to be interrupted.
Tags:
Related research
Post
Capital catalysts – Funding development when budgets are tight in Africa
In this presentation deck, we grappled with some of the Africa’s most pressing issues for 2024 and beyond. We explored Africa’s alternative funding strategies during challenging times, examined the continent’s growth hotspot, and unpacked South Africa’s political economy in the lead up to the general elections in 2024.
Find Out More
Post
APAC Key themes 2024 – A year of living cautiously
In 2024, the main influence on Asia is likely to be a global slowdown, particularly in China and the US. Moreover, governments have limited policy space to deal with these headwinds. Other negative influences, however, are set to ease further, including domestic inflation, external pressure on interest rates, and softening semiconductor prices. Overall, we expect a bumpy year as issues become more country-specific and policy responses and economic outcomes diverge.
Find Out More
Post
Latin America Key Themes 2024 – Slower growth, but it’s not all bad news
Growth in most LatAm economies will be below consensus. Economic momentum has surprised to the upside through most of 2023, but the full effects of record global and domestic monetary tightening are yet to be seen.
Find Out More