The February ECB meeting marked the beginning of a clear hawkish shift in the ECB’s policy outlook. Although the policy...
Omicron
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Research Briefing
The banking sector has proved resilient during the pandemic, and eurozone banks will continue to play a significant role supporting...
Research Briefing
Following a swift recovery, the US labor market is entering a crucial phase and the answers to five key questions...
Research Briefing
After a decade of consistently strong growth, UK labour supply has slumped since the onset of the pandemic and we...
Research Briefing
Inflation prospects will again dominate the upcoming ECB meeting. We do not expect any clear policy signals or decisions given...
Research Briefing
The lifting of Covid restrictions on January 27 adds to hopes that the worst of the pandemic is in the...
Research Briefing
We have lowered our mainland 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 4.2% to reflect the economic impact of the...
Research Briefing
Whether or not the MPC raises Bank Rate in February is close to a 50:50 call. We marginally favour a...
Research Briefing
Our eurozone Recovery Tracker rose 1.4pts to 80.3 in the two weeks ending January 9. We view the reading with...
Research Briefing
Though the scale of December’s fall in retail sales came as a nasty surprise, it was not simply an Omicron...
Research Briefing
After expanding strongly in Q2, global GDP growth slowed in Q3 in response to the Delta disruption and ongoing supply...
Research Briefing
We’ve lowered our 2022 Danish GDP forecast 0.1ppt to 3%, with the Omicron variant expected to slow activity in Q1....
Research Briefing
We have kept our growth forecast for this year unchanged at 3.2%, as we expect the impact of the Omicron...
Research Briefing
A strong outturn for November took the output measure of GDP above its pre-pandemic peak. Given GDP is likely to...
Research Briefing
Strong industrial production numbers for November offer some hope that the worst is over, supporting our view of a gradual...
Research Briefing
Our forecast for Finland’s GDP growth is 2.3% this year and 1.5% in 2023, both unchanged from last month. Despite...
Research Briefing
We expect the solid recovery of the labour market and the lagged impact from the 2021 inflation surge to trigger...
Research Briefing
Our eurozone Recovery Tracker saw further deterioration over the Christmas period, falling 1.5pts to 79.1 in the three weeks ended...
Research Briefing
The hit to UK GDP from Omicron is likely to be much smaller than previous Covid waves
Research Briefing
Our US supply-chain stress tracker offers some encouraging news to kick off the new year. However, logistics bottlenecks remained.
