Research Briefing
We do not believe the moderate recession forecast this winter and the deepening housing correction completely undermines the medium-term case...
Interest rates
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 142 results
Research Briefing
The new UK Chancellor's decision to reverse almost all September's mini-Budget tax cuts plus action to limit the cost of...
Research Briefing
Debt costs continue to soar across advanced economies, threatening to push commercial real estate markets into distress. We believe that...
Research Briefing
Supply chain strains eased in September after increasing slightly in August. Transportation pressures subsided the most of all our tracker's...
Research Briefing
In our view, the IMF's recent downgrade of its global GDP growth forecast looks too optimistic. The IMF estimates that...
Research Briefing
As far as markets are concerned, the Fed's expected path of short term rates, peaking at 4.4% early next year,...
Research Briefing
After several days of huge UK financial market volatility, the BoE intervened at the long end of the gilt market...
Research Briefing
The 50 largest metros will narrowly avoid a recession in 2022 but half will not escape one in 2023. In...
Research Briefing
While US policy rates will rise further in the near-term, the long-run neutral rate – the interest rate consistent with...
Research Briefing
Our baseline economic outlook now assumes a mild US recession in the first half of 2023. Despite moderate improvement in...
Research Briefing
We expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hike another 35bps-50bps at its meeting this month. We think the...
Research Briefing
We expect a limited increase in policy rates across Asia, and most central banks are unlikely to match the Fed’s...
Research Briefing
The Norway mainland GDP forecast has been raised 0.5ppts to 3% following a slight growth surprise in Q2 and a...
Research Briefing
As expected, the FOMC delivered its second consecutive 75bps rate hike, lifting the target range for the federal funds rate...
Research Briefing
Higher inflation and weaker external demand as Europe battles with energy shortages have led us to lower our Norwegian mainland...
Research Briefing
The ECB's decision to hike rates, abandon forward guidance and introduce an anti-fragmentation tool appear to reflect a balancing act...
Research Briefing
Increased borrowing costs are raising corporate default fears in the US, but we believe higher interest rates alone won't be...
Research Briefing
The scale of the increases in debt costs, coupled with the low-yielding environment makes some repricing highly likely for gateway...
Research Briefing
UK commercial real estate costs will increase more sharply than inflation this year, resulting in the widest margin since records...
Research Briefing
Although GDP rose 0.8% in Q1, the monthly numbers showed that growth was concentrated entirely in the first month of...
