Research Briefing | Sep 29, 2022

Eight of top 20 US metros to see marginal GDP declines in 2023

The 50 largest metros will narrowly avoid a recession in 2022 but half will not escape one in 2023. In line with the US, we forecast a shallow recession for 25 of 50 metros given the Fed’s hawkish tone on raising interest rates. Of the top 20 metros, eight will see marginal GDP declines.

What you will learn:

  • San Jose is expected to lead 2023 GDP growth with Seattle, San Francisco, Las Vegas, and Honolulu also forecast to post stronger than average growth.
  • That said, consumption growth has and will remain positive in all but one of the top 50 metros. Strongly tied to personal income growth, San Jose, Austin, and San Francisco will lead consumption growth in 2022 and 2023, while Tampa is expected to incur a marginal decline.
  • We also forecast low but positive job growth in 2023 for all the top 50 metros, again, in line with the modest 0.5% employment growth rate expected for the US.
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