Research Briefing
Strong annual GDP growth figures for most major European cities do not tell the whole story in 2022 as the...
Inflation risks
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 168 results
Research Briefing
While US policy rates will rise further in the near-term, the long-run neutral rate – the interest rate consistent with...
Research Briefing
We expect Canada to enter a recession in Q4 2022 and as a result, most metros including Toronto, Montreal, and...
Research Briefing
We forecast copper prices to fall over the next six months as global economic growth deteriorates and surging energy prices...
Research Briefing
Our baseline economic outlook now assumes a mild US recession in the first half of 2023. Despite moderate improvement in...
Research Briefing
Odds of a downturn in Canada have just crossed a tipping point and we now expect a moderate recession starting...
Research Briefing
Brazil's October presidential election will likely be decided in a runoff between two arch-rivals: the far-right Jair Bolsonaro and left-wing...
Research Briefing
We expect a shallow but protracted recession in Finland from Q3 this year to Q1 2023, with a contraction of...
Research Briefing
The UK government's energy price guarantee will mean a much lower peak for inflation, reducing the damage to household incomes....
Research Briefing
Although the risk of hard energy rationing has diminished, demand destruction triggered by the surge in energy prices has led...
Research Briefing
The acceleration in nominal wage growth rates in Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies over the past couple of quarters...
Research Briefing
We have long been expecting a dovish pivot from the ECB at the turn of the year as supply-driven core...
Research Briefing
The minutes from the July ECB meeting, when the bank ended the period of the negative interest rates in the...
Research Briefing
We have cut our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Finland by 0.3ppts to 0.5%. Although growth in Q2 remained resilient...
Research Briefing
The BoE today announced a 50bp rise in Bank Rate to 1.75%, despite publishing a forecast that suggests the UK...
Research Briefing
The ECB's decision to hike rates, abandon forward guidance and introduce an anti-fragmentation tool appear to reflect a balancing act...
Research Briefing
Despite a better start to 2022 than previously estimated, we have kept our forecast for this year unchanged due to...
Research Briefing
2022 is proving to be a very disappointing year for global GDP growth, with risks that the outlook could worsen....
Research Briefing
Increased borrowing costs are raising corporate default fears in the US, but we believe higher interest rates alone won't be...
Research Briefing
Supply chain dynamics improved for the third straight month in June, according to our tracker. Pressures eased most on the...
