Research Briefing | Aug 18, 2022

Resilient growth across Finland in Q2, but headwinds dominate

We have cut our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Finland by 0.3ppts to 0.5%. Although growth in Q2 remained resilient based on the flash estimate, pushing up our forecast for 2022 to 2.2%, the near-term outlook remains dominated by headwinds. High inflation is increasingly passing through to core prices, squeezing real incomes and denting confidence.

What you will learn:

  • Gas and electricity prices remain elevated, although Finland has cut its gas consumption by almost 60% YTD.
  • After an Omicron-related drop in January, activity increased in the following months despite the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war.
  • However, a slowdown is imminent, with record low consumer confidence and weakening business confidence across sectors.
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