Research Briefing | Sep 29, 2022

European cities face a tough winter as recession spreads

Strong annual GDP growth figures for most major European cities do not tell the whole story in 2022 as the economic environment across Europe has continued to deteriorate in the second half of this year. We expect technical recessions across most major European cities in H2 2022 and into Q1 2023.

What you will learn:

  • Some cities are more exposed to the current challenges than others. German cities with large manufacturing bases such as Munich are likely to be hit hard. And cities such as Hamburg which depend on the transport sector are also in for a difficult few months ahead.
  • Central and eastern European cities are also particularly exposed to the current challenges. Greater dependency on Russian energy, high inflation, and strong supply chain links to the struggling German economy all mean that we expect CEE cities such as Warsaw, Prague, and Budapest to suffer recessions over the winter.
  • These technical recessions mean that city economies will enter 2023 on a weak note, and their prospects for the year as a whole do not look particularly favourable, as elevated price levels will continue to squeeze households and businesses.
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