Research Briefing
We expect Asian currencies to stabilise, if not strengthen, versus the US dollar in 2023, as the Fed pauses hiking...
Federal Reserve
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 85 results
Consulting Report
Labour markets across a range of advanced economies are cooling rapidly, according to a unique dataset developed by Oxford Economics...
Research Briefing
The global cycle is now rolling over and even if the recession is likely to be mild, the subsequent recovery...
Research Briefing
Policy divergence will continue to be a key theme in global FI markets in 2023. Whereas we pencil in a...
Research Briefing
The strength of the US labor market, as demonstrated by the increase in job openings in September, will frustrate the...
Research Briefing
Supply chain developments were mixed in October, but the implications for the outlook, particularly for inflation, are modest. The easing...
Research Briefing
The precipitous decline of the Yen to record fresh lows (and briefly above 150 last month) coupled with a dramatic...
Research Briefing
To no one's surprise, the FOMC raised interest rates by 75bps for a fourth consecutive meeting, lifting the target range...
Research Briefing
Central banks around the world are raising interest rates and shrinking balance sheets, but financial conditions are not under enough...
Research Briefing
2023 is likely to be a difficult year for most Asian economies with growth slowdowns, stubborn inflation, and sticky policy...
Research Briefing
We expect El Salvador to avoid default in 2023, but unsustainable public debt and dangerously low reserves will trigger restructuring...
Research Briefing
The September jobs data report and the August JOLTS offered some signs of a loosening in labor market conditions. Job...
Research Briefing
As far as markets are concerned, the Fed's expected path of short term rates, peaking at 4.4% early next year,...
Research Briefing
While US policy rates will rise further in the near-term, the long-run neutral rate – the interest rate consistent with...
Research Briefing
Our baseline economic outlook now assumes a mild US recession in the first half of 2023. Despite moderate improvement in...
Research Briefing
Central banks have changed the way they react to economic conditions, largely focussing on current inflation and its impact on...
The Federal Reserve is worried about inflation and has made a big step to tackle it, raising the federal funds...
Research Briefing
The US economy is past its peak, but that doesn’t mean the recovery is headed into reverse. While a deteriorated...
Research Briefing
We see the strong pull back in long-term US yields since the peak of the reflation trade this year as...
Research Briefing
Our analysis of key economic indicators suggests on balance the economy is in the mid-cycle phase of the business cycle....
