Research Briefing
Although the outlook for Sweden is strong with all restrictions removed, there are downside risks related to persistent supply-chain bottlenecks...
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Research Briefing
We estimate France’s fiscal deficit in 2022 will be around €40bn wider than projected by the government in its draft...
Research Briefing
Repeatedly hawkish comments from BoE Governor Bailey suggest that the MPC is preparing the ground for a rate rise. Consequently,...
Research Briefing
The Danish economy expanded 2.8% q/q in Q2, sending GDP comfortably above its pre-pandemic level. As a result, we have...
Research Briefing
Finland’s GDP in the last few quarters has been revised up slightly, lifting our growth forecast for 2021. High-frequency indicators...
Research Briefing
The Nordic recovery is on track despite some surprises in the Q2 GDP components and rising downside risks.
Research Briefing
Our Recovery Tracker suffered a setback at September’s end, falling 1.1pts to87.6 after reaching a new pandemic high two weeks...
Research Briefing
Consumer spending took over as the driver of recovery in Q2. We expect similar gains in Q3, leaving spending 3%...
Research Briefing
Government support schemes have been hugely successful in mitigating the financial consequences of the pandemic to consumers. But at the...
Research Briefing
Inflation in the UK is set to peak higher for longer than we previously expected. But structural factors plus the...
Research Briefing
Continued strength in the latest labour market data has led us to strengthen our London employment forecast. We now expect...
Research Briefing
Revisions in Q2’s national accounts showed the economy responding more strongly to exiting lockdown than initially thought. At the same...
Our 2021 mainland GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 4.1%. With all domestic restrictions eased and the pandemic largely under...
Despite another shift in the Covid-19 situation across Europe, national governments have largely resisted imposing new lockdowns, and our short-term...
Research Briefing
High-frequency data on numbers of employees and median pay suggest that the Covid-19 pandemic has not made the ‘north-south divide’...
Research Briefing
The surge in European gas and electricity prices over recent months pushed energy prices to an all-time high in August,...
Research Briefing
The minutes of September’s MPC meeting were more hawkish, leading markets to price in a rate hike early next year....
Research Briefing
The federal election has seen a further fragmentation of the vote, which has left Germany with an inconclusive result. A...
Research Briefing
We’ve raised our 2021 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 3.4%, following the full release of the Q2 national accounts....
Research Briefing
Growth was confirmed at 0.9% in Q2, driven by domestic demand while net exports were a drag. The monthly GDP...
