Research Briefing
Monthly data continues to show a gradual but persistent slowdown in economic activity moving deeper into Q4. While we still...
Europe
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Research Briefing
We remain sceptical that Draghi’s reform agenda will be fully delivered and consider a long-term improvement in Italy’s economic prospects...
Research Briefing
Political turmoil in Portugal will delay the execution of some EU recovery funding and freeze key stimulus measures planned for...
The easy gains from re opening the London economy have now mostly been realised, and the visitor economy is still...
Research Briefing
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) hiked its policy rate by 75bps to 1.25% at yesterday’s meeting. Although some tightening...
Research Briefing
We estimate that Warsaw’s GDP grew by 4.5% a year in the 2010-19 period, so notably faster than its five...
Research Briefing
Europe’s tourism sector made solid strides towards recovery this summer. In July, overnight stays reached just above 70% of 2019...
Research Briefing
GDP for the eurozone surprised on the upside in Q3 with growth of 2.2% q/q, slightly up from Q2. The...
Research Briefing
We have lowered our 2021 mainland GDP growth forecast to 3.9% from 4.1% previously after a softer-than-expected expansion in July....
Research Briefing
The week was full of events that could potentially become policy shakers. While the PMIs showed economic growth keeps cooling,...
Research Briefing
The recent escalation of the conflict between Poland and the European Union has significantly increased the odds of a decisive...
Research Briefing
Although the outlook for Sweden is strong with all restrictions removed, there are downside risks related to persistent supply-chain bottlenecks...
Research Briefing
We estimate France’s fiscal deficit in 2022 will be around €40bn wider than projected by the government in its draft...
Research Briefing
Repeatedly hawkish comments from BoE Governor Bailey suggest that the MPC is preparing the ground for a rate rise. Consequently,...
Research Briefing
The Danish economy expanded 2.8% q/q in Q2, sending GDP comfortably above its pre-pandemic level. As a result, we have...
Research Briefing
Finland’s GDP in the last few quarters has been revised up slightly, lifting our growth forecast for 2021. High-frequency indicators...
Research Briefing
The Nordic recovery is on track despite some surprises in the Q2 GDP components and rising downside risks.
Research Briefing
Our Recovery Tracker suffered a setback at September’s end, falling 1.1pts to87.6 after reaching a new pandemic high two weeks...
Research Briefing
Consumer spending took over as the driver of recovery in Q2. We expect similar gains in Q3, leaving spending 3%...
Research Briefing
Government support schemes have been hugely successful in mitigating the financial consequences of the pandemic to consumers. But at the...
