Research Briefing | Oct 29, 2021

Eurozone weekly economic briefing | GDP surprised on the upside

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-weekly-economic-briefing-GDP surprised on the upside-week-43

GDP for the eurozone surprised on the upside in Q3 with growth of 2.2% q/q, slightly up from Q2. The surprise came mainly from France and Italy, while Spain disappointed. Overall, the eurozone has had a relatively healthy summer, but it is now clear that growth will start to slow sharply in Q4.

What you will learn:

  • Driven up by energy prices and supply-side bottlenecks, inflation rose to 4.1% in October, its highest since 2008.
  • On the policy front, the ECB meeting yesterday did not bring any changes, leaving the December meeting as the key meeting for the future of the QE tapering.
  • Overall, our base-case scenario continues to see the ECB announcing the end of the PEPP in December and increasing the pace of APP purchases to preserve favourable financial conditions.

{% video_player “embed_player” overrideable=False, type=’scriptV4′, hide_playlist=True, viral_sharing=False, embed_button=False, autoplay=False, hidden_controls=False, loop=False, muted=False, full_width=False, width=’1920′, height=’1080′, player_id=’58641723264′, style=” %}

Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Post

Local rates and FX: Asian local currency sovereigns – not long now

The pieces are almost in place for a high conviction OW on Asian local currency debt, but not quite. Indeed, we maintain a cautious view on all EM local currency sovereign bonds, including Asia, given the relentless concern over the dollar and domestic inflationary pressures.

Find Out More

Post

Pre-emptive debt restructuring: a viable scenario for Africa?

The question of debt restructuring is becoming a more pressing one: in recent weeks, a number of African sovereigns have openly or discreetly mulled public debt reorganisation, called for debt relief, or suffered credit rating downgrades owing to rising default odds.

Find Out More