Research Briefing | Oct 29, 2021

Eurozone weekly economic briefing | GDP surprised on the upside

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GDP for the eurozone surprised on the upside in Q3 with growth of 2.2% q/q, slightly up from Q2. The surprise came mainly from France and Italy, while Spain disappointed. Overall, the eurozone has had a relatively healthy summer, but it is now clear that growth will start to slow sharply in Q4.

What you will learn:

  • Driven up by energy prices and supply-side bottlenecks, inflation rose to 4.1% in October, its highest since 2008.
  • On the policy front, the ECB meeting yesterday did not bring any changes, leaving the December meeting as the key meeting for the future of the QE tapering.
  • Overall, our base-case scenario continues to see the ECB announcing the end of the PEPP in December and increasing the pace of APP purchases to preserve favourable financial conditions.

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