Poland | NBP reaffirms its hawkish turn
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) hiked its policy rate by 75bps to 1.25% at yesterday’s meeting. Although some tightening was expected, the magnitude surprised both us and consensus.
What you will learn:
- The decision came against the backdrop of another upside surprise in inflation, which accelerated to a twenty year high of 6.8% in October, up 0.9ppts from September.
- Although interest rate hikes will do little to ease near-term inflationary pressures, the NBP, after staying put for too long and failing to communicate its plans to the markets, seems to be pursuing a more aggressive tightening path.
- With NBP’s communication still extremely vague, the pace of next hikes is uncertain.
Latin America Key Themes 2024 – Slower growth, but it’s not all bad news
Growth in most LatAm economies will be below consensus. Economic momentum has surprised to the upside through most of 2023, but the full effects of record global and domestic monetary tightening are yet to be seen.Find Out More
Easing financial conditions offer CRE some respite
Our measure of financial conditions has become less restrictive in the US and started to loosen in the eurozone and the UK, reflecting investors' expectations that interest rates have peaked. This should aid the outlook for commercial real estate (CRE) on the margins, although the scale of past rate hikes, sluggish economies, and structural headwinds mean the sector still confronts challenging fundamentals.Find Out More