Research Briefing | Nov 4, 2021

Poland | NBP reaffirms its hawkish turn

Ipad Frame - Poland-NBP-reaffirms-its-hawkish-turn

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) hiked its policy rate by 75bps to 1.25% at yesterday’s meeting. Although some tightening was expected, the magnitude surprised both us and consensus.

What you will learn:

  • The decision came against the backdrop of another upside surprise in inflation, which accelerated to a twenty year high of 6.8% in October, up 0.9ppts from September.
  • Although interest rate hikes will do little to ease near-term inflationary pressures, the NBP, after staying put for too long and failing to communicate its plans to the markets, seems to be pursuing a more aggressive tightening path.
  • With NBP’s communication still extremely vague, the pace of next hikes is uncertain.
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