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We expect growth will pick up in 2025 in Sweden, Norway and Finland, with Denmark as the exception, where we believe growth will slow but remain above potential.

The Nordic economies will have a better 2024 than last year, but growth rates will diverge across the region. The main growth drivers will be improving domestic demand, higher confidence, and easing financial conditions amid lower inflation and policy easing. A pharma boom will make Denmark outperform, while a weak finish to 2023 will weigh on growth in Finland and Sweden.

Following a hard winter, we expect the Nordic economies to rebound from mid-2023 as falling inflation turns real incomes positive, alleviating uncertainty, boosting confidence, and allowing central banks to end policy tightening.

Research Briefing | Sep 13, 2022

GDP growth for Denmark downgraded as winter recession looms large

We now expect Denmark to enter a shallow recession in Q3 this year, ending in Q1 2023, due to rising energy costs, exhausted reopening tailwinds, and tightening financial conditions. We have cut our GDP growth forecasts by 1.2ppts to 2.3% in 2022 and by 0.7ppts to 0.5% in 2023. Beyond 2023, it will take several years for GDP to return to our previous baseline.

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Research Briefing | Sep 13, 2022

GDP growth for Denmark downgraded as winter recession looms large

We now expect Denmark to enter a shallow recession in Q3 this year, ending in Q1 2023, due to rising energy costs, exhausted reopening tailwinds, and tightening financial conditions. We have cut our GDP growth forecasts by 1.2ppts to 2.3% in 2022 and by 0.7ppts to 0.5% in 2023. Beyond 2023, it will take several years for GDP to return to our previous baseline.

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Research Briefing | Aug 16, 2022

Growth surprise in Denmark in Q2 raises 2022 GDP forecast

The Danish economy surprised to the upside in Q2, expanding by 0.7% q/q. This showing raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast 0.4ppts, to 3.5%. Inflation is taking a toll on goods spending, but spending on services likely rebounded strongly in Q2, supporting consumption. Nevertheless, our view of the outlook remains unchanged: We see growth flatlining in H2, before easing inflation and a pause in ECB hikes support a pickup in activity over 2023.

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Research Briefing | Aug 16, 2022

Growth surprise in Denmark in Q2 raises 2022 GDP forecast

The Danish economy surprised to the upside in Q2, expanding by 0.7% q/q. This showing raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast 0.4ppts, to 3.5%. Inflation is taking a toll on goods spending, but spending on services likely rebounded strongly in Q2, supporting consumption. Nevertheless, our view of the outlook remains unchanged: We see growth flatlining in H2, before easing inflation and a pause in ECB hikes support a pickup in activity over 2023.

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Research Briefing | Jul 15, 2022

Energy crisis in Denmark dents outlook for 2022 and 2023

We have cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Denmark by 0.7ppts to 3.1% to reflect the prospect of energy shortages in Europe. As a net importer of natural gas via Germany, who is seeing reduced supply from Russia, Denmark is highly likely to see some degree of industrial gas rationing over the winter months.

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Research Briefing | Jul 15, 2022

Energy crisis in Denmark dents outlook for 2022 and 2023

We have cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Denmark by 0.7ppts to 3.1% to reflect the prospect of energy shortages in Europe. As a net importer of natural gas via Germany, who is seeing reduced supply from Russia, Denmark is highly likely to see some degree of industrial gas rationing over the winter months.

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Research Briefing | Jun 16, 2022

Inflation in Denmark could average close to 7% this year

Denmark’s inflation outlook is deteriorating rapidly. With the EU announcing plans to wind down imports of Russian oil, higher-for-longer oil prices and soaring food costs has made us raise our inflation forecast to 6.7% from 5% previously. Reassuringly, high-frequency consumption data suggest that the drops in consumer confidence are not being reflected in activity.

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Research Briefing | Jun 16, 2022

Inflation in Denmark could average close to 7% this year

Denmark’s inflation outlook is deteriorating rapidly. With the EU announcing plans to wind down imports of Russian oil, higher-for-longer oil prices and soaring food costs has made us raise our inflation forecast to 6.7% from 5% previously. Reassuringly, high-frequency consumption data suggest that the drops in consumer confidence are not being reflected in activity.

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Berlin
Research Briefing | Apr 5, 2022

Europe: City employment growth will revert to pre-crisis norms

City employment growth will revert to pre-crisis norms

We forecast that as the distortions from the pandemic subside, employment growth across Europe’s major cities will generally outperform national economies in the years to 2026. Evidence that city population dynamics are reverting to pre-crisis trends, combined with a favourable sectoral setting, underpins this.

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Research Briefing | Apr 5, 2022

Europe: City employment growth will revert to pre-crisis norms

City employment growth will revert to pre-crisis norms

We forecast that as the distortions from the pandemic subside, employment growth across Europe’s major cities will generally outperform national economies in the years to 2026. Evidence that city population dynamics are reverting to pre-crisis trends, combined with a favourable sectoral setting, underpins this.

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Research Briefing | Feb 18, 2022

High inflation in Denmark becomes main downside risk to our 2022 outlook

GDP surprised to the upside in Q4 2021 with 1.1% q/q growth, according to the flash estimate. The positive carryover effect has raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.4ppts to 3.4%. All domestic restrictions were eased at the end of January, in line with our view that despite incredibly high Covid cases, the economic hit from Omicron will be mild and short-lived.

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Research Briefing | Feb 18, 2022

High inflation in Denmark becomes main downside risk to our 2022 outlook

GDP surprised to the upside in Q4 2021 with 1.1% q/q growth, according to the flash estimate. The positive carryover effect has raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.4ppts to 3.4%. All domestic restrictions were eased at the end of January, in line with our view that despite incredibly high Covid cases, the economic hit from Omicron will be mild and short-lived.

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Nordics real estate
Research Briefing | Jan 19, 2022

European real estate obsolescence risk lowest for the Nordics

Ipad Frame - Europe-Real-estate-obsolescence-risk-lowest-for-the-Nordics

Our new index of European real estate obsolescence finds that the Nordic countries have the lowest risk of obsolescence and are best placed for the climate transition.

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Research Briefing | Jan 19, 2022

European real estate obsolescence risk lowest for the Nordics

Ipad Frame - Europe-Real-estate-obsolescence-risk-lowest-for-the-Nordics

Our new index of European real estate obsolescence finds that the Nordic countries have the lowest risk of obsolescence and are best placed for the climate transition.

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Denmark 2022 economic growth
Research Briefing | Jan 19, 2022

Denmark’s successful virus containment strategy means Omicron will not derail growth in 2022

Ipad Frame - Denmark-Successful-virus-containment-strategy-means-Omicron-will-not-derail-growth-in-2022

We’ve lowered our 2022 Danish GDP forecast 0.1ppt to 3%, with the Omicron variant expected to slow activity in Q1. But the economy should make up the lost ground in the following quarters as the new restrictions – which have been quite benign – have already begun to be eased.

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Research Briefing | Jan 19, 2022

Denmark’s successful virus containment strategy means Omicron will not derail growth in 2022

Ipad Frame - Denmark-Successful-virus-containment-strategy-means-Omicron-will-not-derail-growth-in-2022

We’ve lowered our 2022 Danish GDP forecast 0.1ppt to 3%, with the Omicron variant expected to slow activity in Q1. But the economy should make up the lost ground in the following quarters as the new restrictions – which have been quite benign – have already begun to be eased.

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Research Briefing | Dec 16, 2021

Solid growth for Denmark expected despite emergence of Omicron variant

Ipad Frame - Denmark-Solid-growth-expected-despite-emergence-of-Omicron-variant

Downward revisions to Q2 and Q3 GDP figures and concerns about the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant have led us to lower our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3% previously.

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Research Briefing | Dec 16, 2021

Solid growth for Denmark expected despite emergence of Omicron variant

Ipad Frame - Denmark-Solid-growth-expected-despite-emergence-of-Omicron-variant

Downward revisions to Q2 and Q3 GDP figures and concerns about the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant have led us to lower our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3% previously.

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Nordic key themes 2022
Research Briefing | Dec 9, 2021

Nordic key themes 2022: Headwinds to dissipate

Ipad Frame - Nordic-key-themes-2022-Headwinds-to-dissipate

The Nordic countries will exit 2021 in much better shape than when they entered it. Considerable progress on vaccine rollouts and post-reopening booms have brought all four economies above their pre-pandemic levels. We think four key themes will shape the outlook for the region heading into 2022.

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Research Briefing | Dec 9, 2021

Nordic key themes 2022: Headwinds to dissipate

Ipad Frame - Nordic-key-themes-2022-Headwinds-to-dissipate

The Nordic countries will exit 2021 in much better shape than when they entered it. Considerable progress on vaccine rollouts and post-reopening booms have brought all four economies above their pre-pandemic levels. We think four key themes will shape the outlook for the region heading into 2022.

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Research Briefing | Nov 18, 2021

Denmark | Economy heats up as GDP surprises to the upside in Q3

Ipad Frame - Denmark-Economy-heats-up-as-GDP-surprises-to-the-upside-in-Q3

According to the advance estimate, Q3 GDP exceeded expectations with a 2% expansion. While this figure is subject to revision, Denmark is on course for very strong growth this year after the 2.1% GDP decline in 2020.

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Research Briefing | Nov 18, 2021

Denmark | Economy heats up as GDP surprises to the upside in Q3

Ipad Frame - Denmark-Economy-heats-up-as-GDP-surprises-to-the-upside-in-Q3

According to the advance estimate, Q3 GDP exceeded expectations with a 2% expansion. While this figure is subject to revision, Denmark is on course for very strong growth this year after the 2.1% GDP decline in 2020.

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The Danish economy expanded 2.8% q/q in Q2, sending GDP comfortably above its pre-pandemic level. As a result, we have raised our 2021 GDP growth forecast to 4.5% from 3.4% previously, with less pandemic scarring now expected.

Research Briefing | Oct 13, 2021

Nordic outlook is bright, but downside risks are rising

Nordic webinar - October 2021 - bannerIpad Frame - Nordic-outlook-is-bright-but-downside-risks-are-rising

The Nordic recovery is on track despite some surprises in the Q2 GDP components and rising downside risks. Real goods exports underperformed given the rebound in external demand, reflecting stress in supply chains and input shortages for the region’s trade-sensitive economies.

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Research Briefing | Oct 13, 2021

Nordic outlook is bright, but downside risks are rising

Nordic webinar - October 2021 - bannerIpad Frame - Nordic-outlook-is-bright-but-downside-risks-are-rising

The Nordic recovery is on track despite some surprises in the Q2 GDP components and rising downside risks. Real goods exports underperformed given the rebound in external demand, reflecting stress in supply chains and input shortages for the region’s trade-sensitive economies.

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Research Briefing | Sep 17, 2021

Denmark | Strong consumer spending should power the recovery

Ipad Frame-Denmark-Strong-consumer-spending-should-power-the-recovery

We’ve raised our 2021 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 3.4%, following the full release of the Q2 national accounts. While the consumer rebound fell short of expectations, strong wage growth and an unwinding of excess savings should power economic growth in H2.

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Research Briefing | Sep 17, 2021

Denmark | Strong consumer spending should power the recovery

Ipad Frame-Denmark-Strong-consumer-spending-should-power-the-recovery

We’ve raised our 2021 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 3.4%, following the full release of the Q2 national accounts. While the consumer rebound fell short of expectations, strong wage growth and an unwinding of excess savings should power economic growth in H2.

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Research Briefing | Aug 18, 2021

Denmark | Vaccination has limited the Delta variant to a downside risk

Denmark | The vaccination programme has limited the Delta variant to a downside risk

The flash release estimates that GDP expanded 2.2% in Q2, slightly better than our 2.1% estimate, pushing the Danish economy above its pre-pandemic level. We have therefore raised our 2021 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 3.2%, which will be followed by 3.4% expansion in 2022.

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Research Briefing | Aug 18, 2021

Denmark | Vaccination has limited the Delta variant to a downside risk

Denmark | The vaccination programme has limited the Delta variant to a downside risk

The flash release estimates that GDP expanded 2.2% in Q2, slightly better than our 2.1% estimate, pushing the Danish economy above its pre-pandemic level. We have therefore raised our 2021 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 3.2%, which will be followed by 3.4% expansion in 2022.

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Research Briefing | Jul 15, 2021

Denmark | Delta variant is now the main downside risk

Denmark | Delta variant is now the main downside risk

We have raised our 2021 GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from 2.6% previously to reflect a revised softer economic decline in 2020 and a strong increase in
consumer activity. The relaxation of restrictions throughout Q2 should lead to an economic rebound of around 2% over the quarter and push GDP comfortably above its pre-pandemic level, with private investment and stronger services activity supporting growth in H2 2021.

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Research Briefing | Jul 15, 2021

Denmark | Delta variant is now the main downside risk

Denmark | Delta variant is now the main downside risk

We have raised our 2021 GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from 2.6% previously to reflect a revised softer economic decline in 2020 and a strong increase in
consumer activity. The relaxation of restrictions throughout Q2 should lead to an economic rebound of around 2% over the quarter and push GDP comfortably above its pre-pandemic level, with private investment and stronger services activity supporting growth in H2 2021.

Read more

Research Briefing | Apr 21, 2021

Sweden | Country Economic Forecast April

Why big fiscal deficits and low inflation can coexi (35)

Sweden’s economy looks increasingly resilient to the latest round of activity 
restrictions. Despite stricter lockdown measures and a slow vaccine roll-out, 
Swedish consumers are starting to spend and businesses are ramping up
production. We now expect GDP to have risen in Q1, rather than contracting,
before a sharp acceleration in activity over the summer as vaccines become
widespread.

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Research Briefing | Apr 21, 2021

Sweden | Country Economic Forecast April

Why big fiscal deficits and low inflation can coexi (35)

Sweden’s economy looks increasingly resilient to the latest round of activity 
restrictions. Despite stricter lockdown measures and a slow vaccine roll-out, 
Swedish consumers are starting to spend and businesses are ramping up
production. We now expect GDP to have risen in Q1, rather than contracting,
before a sharp acceleration in activity over the summer as vaccines become
widespread.

Read more