Research Briefing
The global cycle is now rolling over and even if the recession is likely to be mild, the subsequent recovery...
Consumer Recession
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Research Briefing
Our baseline forecast is now for world trade in goods to decline by 0.2% in 2023, a considerable downgrade from...
Research Briefing
We anticipate most advanced economies will fall into recession in 2023 and global growth will be weaker than the consensus...
Research Briefing
Many cities in the world's advanced economies will enter recession in 2023, with soaring inflation and tightening monetary and fiscal...
Research Briefing
Timely October trade data from North Asia are flashing warning signs that Asia's export downturn is gathering momentum. We think...
Research Briefing
Our baseline forecast is for consumer spending in the eurozone to fall over the next two quarters as consumption fundamentals...
Research Briefing
Revisions to personal income and spending data suggest US households accumulated a smaller stock of excess savings and have depleted...
Research Briefing
We do not believe the moderate recession forecast this winter and the deepening housing correction completely undermines the medium-term case...
Research Briefing
According to the proposal of the German government's expert commission around half of the recently agreed €200bn fiscal package or...
Research Briefing
The evidence of the past year shows that inflation has been far from transitory. But we still believe supply factors...
Research Briefing
After several days of huge UK financial market volatility, the BoE intervened at the long end of the gilt market...
Research Briefing
The impact of the lockdowns and Covid-19-related restrictions in China were severe in the second quarter of 2022. We have...
Research Briefing
We expect Canada to enter a recession in Q4 2022 and as a result, most metros including Toronto, Montreal, and...
Research Briefing
We forecast copper prices to fall over the next six months as global economic growth deteriorates and surging energy prices...
Research Briefing
Our baseline economic outlook now assumes a mild US recession in the first half of 2023. Despite moderate improvement in...
Research Briefing
A consumer recession is almost inevitable in Chile and Colombia due to overheating domestic demand combined with the need to...
Research Briefing
Recession risks are mounting globally, including in the eurozone. Growing recession fears have resulted in large drops in oil prices...
