Research Briefing
The US/Israel-Iran conflict and the associated surge in energy prices have prompted us to revise our world GDP growth forecast...
Business Cycle
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Oxford Economics set the stage for the year ahead, at our second Global Economic Outlook Conference, in London on Wednesday,...
Research Briefing
Recently, Asian economies have looked to consolidate their fiscal balances as the need for counter-cyclical policy reduces.
Research Briefing
In response to the results of the US election we've adopted our 'limited Trump' scenario as our baseline view for...
Research Briefing
We think improving profitability and falling interest rates will underpin a gradual pickup in UK business investment. But this follows...
Research Briefing
European industry is still in the midst of an almost two-year recession, but we believe that the end is increasingly...
Research Briefing
China's economy looks to have entered a marked downturn. Cyclical trends in China are always tricky to assess given the...
Research Briefing
Our new proprietary business cycle phase indicator points to a trough in sight for industry, but with dispersion among sectors....
Our forecasts do not show any significant deindustrialisation over the next decades in Europe. However, Europe indeed faces substantial challenges...
US economy is in transition, but no signs of a recession are imminent. While weaker-than-expected US labour market data have...
Research Briefing
Adverse demographic trends imply that the only alternative for sustaining China's longer-term growth momentum would be to sharply accelerate productivity growth. The timely emergence of generative AI could partially close this gap.
Research Briefing
The economy underwhelmed in the first half of the year while it transitioned to a more sustainable pace of growth,...
Research Briefing
Announced tariff increases by the US and EU on made-in-China EVs, if implemented, will increase EV prices and reduce demand....
Research Briefing
Our proprietary business cycle phase indicator reveals that industrial activity in the advanced economies, which has been in recession for...
Research Briefing
The economy slowed following the strong gains in the second half of last year, as it settled into a more...
Research Briefing
Our new proprietary cycle phase analysis suggests that industrial production in many developed economies has bottomed out and is now...
Research Briefing
We find emerging, but not overwhelming, macro proof to support the recent geopolitical narrative of excess Chinese goods production that...
Research Briefing
Generative AI has the potential to substantially improve the medium-term growth outlook for the economy. It arrives at a perfect moment – labour is going to...
Research Briefing
The launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 made 2023 a leap forward for artificial intelligence (AI). The big battle for...
Research Briefing
Our business cycle indicator implies that the economy is losing momentum, but there are some caveats. Some of the data...
