Research Briefing | May 17, 2024

Industrial production bottomed out in major developed economies

Our new proprietary industrial momentum indicator—which examines month-to-month rates of change in underlying production trends, as well as the momentum of that change, to infer the phase of the cycle—suggests that activity in many of the world’s largest developed economies appears to have reached a trough, with growth at or near zero.

What you will learn:

  • A cluster of countries including the United States and the UK are approaching, or have already reached, a cyclical trough. These economies are positioned to participate in the industrial recovery that we anticipate will occur later in 2024.
  • Meanwhile, some European economies are already in the growth phase of the cycle. Our analysis suggests that France, Sweden, and Slovakia will lead the European recovery, while South Korea is also clearly in the expansionary phase.
  • On the other hand, underlying momentum in Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands is still contractionary, though the pace of decline is decelerating.
  • The analysis lends credence to our expectations for an industrial upturn in the latter half of this year and suggests cyclical tailwinds will be supportive of growth in 2024.

Download our latest report to learn more about how we monitor and forecast the industrial business cycle.

Source: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
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