Research Briefing | Jun 3, 2024

Sheinbaum’s supermajority revived Mexico’s macro-stability concerns

We expect a continuity of AMLO’s policies, but Sheinbaum’s ability to pass constitutional reforms with a supermajority in Congress and the US elections will shape Mexico’s medium-term outlook.

What you will learn:

  • The near 4% depreciation of the peso (MXN) in the intraday movement to a 17.7 MXN per USD peak highlights concerns over a likely supermajority in both houses. AMLO’s legacy structural reforms will require constitutional changes that are now potentially within reach.
  • Government transition will start on October 1 and we expect effects on our 2024 GDP forecast will likely be negligible, so we keep our 1.9% forecast. However, we don’t rule revisions to our 2% growth estimate for 2025 due to changes in the US outlook following the elections.

To learn more on what Mexico’s election results means for our outlook, register for our webinar here.

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