What Mexico’s election results means for our outlook

Date: 12 June 2024

We examine what Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory in Mexico’s presidential election means for the short- and medium-term outlook. Our outlook already accounted for a continuation of AMLO’s policies under Sheinbaum, but a likely supermajority in Congress has revived concerns of a further deterioration of the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals what will offset optimism around nearshoring benefits. The new administration is unlikely to alter the course of the economy for 2024, but downside risks for 2025 are growing especially due to the uncertain outcome of the US elections.

To read more about our outlook on Sheinbaum’s victory, click here.

Joan Domene

Chief Latin America Economist

+52 55 7100 1824

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Joan Domene

Chief Latin America Economist

Mexico City, Mexico

Joan Domene is the Chief Economist for Latin America and is responsible for developing Oxford Economics’ view on the region. Joan is responsible for producing macroeconomic forecasts for Mexico. He manages a team of economists who produce regional and country-specific research on over 30 countries. Joan’s work also involves presenting the outlook to clients and liaising with the media. Joan joined Oxford Economics in 2019 as Senior Economist after 5 years at a Mexican private bank.

Mauricio Monge

Economist, Latin America

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Private: Mauricio Monge

Economist, Latin America

Mexico City, Mexico