Cities with the most favourable demographics and with strength in the consumer- and office-based sectors are set to power China’s economic recovery in 2023 and record the strongest rates of employment growth.
Saarah Ghazi
Toronto and Montreal drove a strong uplift in Canadian employment in Q1. However, small losses are expected through the rest of the year, as high inflation and lower consumer spending work their way through the system to threaten jobs across Canadian metros.
Employment growth is likely to slow across Asia Pacific cities in 2023, due to faltering effects of post Covid-19 recoveries and worse global macroeconomic conditions compared to 2022.
Concerns are growing that tightening financial conditions will push the US economy into recession and affect other G7 economies as well, according to our proprietary sentiment data.
The top 50 metros are expected to see a net gain in jobs on an annual basis in 2023, but all are likely to shed jobs in the second half of the year. Metros heavily reliant on tourism will see the fastest growth, while Midwest metros and some with a large information sector underperform.
The Global Climate Service quantifies the macroeconomic impacts of five climate scenarios against a stated policies baseline. These scenarios help businesses understand the trade-offs and implications of climate mitigation.
Shortages have supported a wave of inventory rebuilding in the US this past year. But with inventories now above normal levels relative to sales in a range of sectors, we expect a sharp downturn in stock accumulation, which is a downside risk to our forecast in H1 2023.
Supply chain stress continued to ease in February despite stronger-than-expected economic growth. Supply chains could return to pre-pandemic conditions by the end of this year if our tracker’s current trajectory is maintained, as we anticipate.
In a Net Zero climate mitigation scenario, we find that $570bn will be wiped off the global chemicals market by 2050, relative to a stated policy baseline. This is equivalent to 8% of total production.
The recent turmoil in US bank funding will likely feed into tighter lending standards to commercial property, dampening the outlook for capital values even further than we had expected. We now expect all property capital values to fall by 10% in 2023 and 5% in 2024.
The late December announcement of China’s intention to re-open its borders for travel took the international community by surprise, with little time to prepare. Border re-opening fell just before Lunar New Year, which proved to be significantly stronger than the last with domestic travel reportedly at 89% of 2019 levels and an initial surge in both inbound and outbound visits, albeit to levels well below those in 2019.
This 2023 report updates our 2020 research on the detection and prevention of financial crime, and it’s cost to the UK financial services sector. We surveyed 300 senior compliance executives about their costs and compliance activities, and used these results to estimate the costs across the UK Financial Services sector.
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank and other stresses in the global banking system have triggered a sharp repricing in financial markets, with stocks and bond yields sliding.
The ECB sent a clear and balanced message at its meeting this week despite the heightened market stress caused by trouble in the American banking system and Credit Suisse.
US authorities appear to have contained the fallout from the collapse of two regional banks – Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Silvergate Capital. We think the failures are isolated events and do not pose a systemic threat to financial stability or the US and global economies.
We expect the Philippines’ 10-year government bond yield to trend down in 2023-2024, after rising continuously since Q3 2020.
We forecast the Mexican peso will appreciate by 4.9% in 2023 to an average of 19.2/US$, up from 20.2/US$ last year. This will be an unprecedented three-year streak of gains and one of the largest among EMs.
We expect global inflation to return to pre-crisis levels faster than it took to reach its peak. While any number of shocks could derail this outcome, there’s a slew of data supporting our optimism.
Cost and availability of financing are critical to the health of construction markets. With interest rates at historically low levels across the developed world for most of the past decade and inflation remaining comfortably benign, policy makers and businesses alike may have forgotten the importance of this fundamental relationship.
The failure of two US banks caught financial markets by surprise but we believe the macroeconomic implications are minor and will not be making any major changes to our baseline forecast.
