Labour market to stall in major Canadian metros

Toronto and Montreal drove a strong uplift in Canadian employment in Q1. However, small losses are expected through the rest of the year, as high inflation and lower consumer spending work their way through the system to threaten jobs across Canadian metros.

What you will learn:

• We forecast overall job losses in 26 out of the 35 metros over the final three quarters of the year, with only three of the largest 10 bucking that trend. Quebec City will fare best while Toronto employment is forecast to edge up, recovering from last winter’s declines, and Calgary will show little change having already fallen away sharply from last summer’s record high.
• Unemployment rates will rise from their current record lows, driven by a rise in the labour force (high immigration and returning older workers). Although no further job losses are expected in Calgary to Q4, the unemployment rate will reach the highest peak among metros, reaching 9.3%.
• In general across the country, the only sector to positively contribute jobs in the remainder of 2023 is accommodation & food services—where job vacancy rates are highest and there is still some slack in terms of travel and spending on hospitality, compared to pre-pandemic.