Research Briefing | Mar 30, 2023

The top 50 US metros add jobs in 2023 despite slower growth

The top 50 metros are expected to see a net gain in jobs on an annual basis in 2023, but all are likely to shed jobs in the second half of the year. Metros heavily reliant on tourism will see the fastest growth, while Midwest metros and some with a large information sector underperform.

What you will learn:

  • Metros with recovering leisure and hospitality sectors and rapid population growth are forecast to lead the job gains in 2023, including Honolulu, Las Vegas, Austin, Jacksonville, and Nashville. Metros with the slowest rate of growth include Baltimore, Columbus, Cleveland, and Denver.
  • The information sector, which includes most tech-related industries, will incur significant job losses in most metros as companies adjust to the weak economic outlook, over-hiring since the pandemic, and uncertainty over financing. We forecast Los Angeles, New York, San Jose, and San Francisco will see the steepest information job declines.
  • Decelerating working age population growth will be accompanied by slower job growth. Of the top 50 metros, 20 are expected to incur a decline in the 18-64 population in 2023 and, consequently, be amongst those with the slowest job growth rates. Nine of the 50, mainly in the Midwest or Northeast, will see overall population declines due largely to out-migration.
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