Tensions in Iran threaten global energy security through the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy trade route.
Emma Pollard
The White House has pivoted to a new tariff authority to impose a 10% global duty, with the possibility of a 15% rate still on the table. While the average effective tariff rate is only modestly lower than before, the shift introduces a new layer of policy uncertainty that could weigh on business decisions and the broader US outlook.
A jobless expansion, the growing role of financial wealth, and the impact of fiscal policy will widen the bifurcation of the consumer this year. The no-hire, no-fire labor market is delivering stability for most workers, but the young and underemployed are finding it increasingly difficult to gain a foothold. Lower inflation will help ease pressure, but will struggle to move the needle much, particularly for lower-income households.
While Kevin Warsh, the Trump administration’s nominee for Federal Reserve chair, was a more hawkish member of the Federal Open Market Committee during his term as Fed governor, his recent views have shifted in favor of rate cuts while remaining a consistent proponent of reducing the Fed’s balance sheet. He’s called for a new Treasury-Fed accord, outlining an agreement for a smaller balance sheet.
The production of The Pitt, Season One resulted in nearly $87 million in total spending across California in 2024. The production spent $62.2 million (72% of the total spend) on wages and salaries for local production cast and crew, and $24.8 million (28%) on goods and services supplied by local businesses.
The data released over the past week don’t warrant changes to our latest baseline forecast for growth to improve this year and for the Federal Reserve to keep policy steady until June.
Midterm voters seem to form their opinion around the economy in the summer and fall. How the economy, and especially the labor market, performs over the next few months will increasingly influence the outcome on Election Day.
The US attack on Venezuela over the weekend dramatically increases uncertainty about the future of its political regime, but the impacts for global oil prices and geopolitical tensions appear limited. Therefore, we won’t change our baseline forecast for the US economy.
Our supply-chain stress index rose in October after sticking within a narrow range over the past year. Volatile trade flows have been balanced by healthy inventory levels and low freight rates. Our index has remained within a tight range over the past year, despite large swings in trade volumes and changes in supply-chain routes due to tariffs.
We’re raising our forecast for light vehicle sales to 15.7mn next year to reflect improving affordability, the new-car loan interest tax break, and the continued spending strength of high-income households.
This study, commissioned by the Motion Picture Association (MPA), examines the five-episode Polish Netflix original limited series “Heweliusz” and analyzes its total economic impact in Poland during the 2024–2025 production period. The study also considers the broader effects of the series on the Polish economy.
This report provides the first look into the growing market of flexible earning opportunities providing human input and oversight into AI systems and their economic benefits.
Black and Hispanic households have experienced more inflation than other groups since the reopening of the economy from the pandemic lockdowns. Although there’ve been many phases of high inflation, some have disproportionately hurt these minority groups, such as the jump in energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the ensuing surge in rental inflation further setting them back.
Our supply chain stress index moderated in September as import volumes continue to decline following front loading activity earlier this year. High frequency data shows that this trend has kept up in Q4, meaning port congestion is unlikely to become a concern.
A household needed to earn an annual income of $110,100 to afford a single-family home and pay both property taxes and home insurance costs in Q3 2025, down 2.3% from the peak Q1 2025 ($112,700) but nearly twice that of Q3 2020.
The US macroeconomic implications are minor, and the resulting reduction in inflation next year is no more than just a handful of basis points.
An epic burst of capex from the tech sector to build AI and related infrastructure has driven a pick-up in borrowing, in the form of new loans, bond sales, and hybrid financing tied to specific projects. This demand for finance points to rising revenues and improved profitability in the US financial services sector while creating opportunities for businesses across the economy to scale their productivity by taking advantage of innovative technologies.
Unemployment is rising and wage growth is declining for young adults, which could have a long-term scarring impact. Weak labor market prospects and rising housing costs are causing more young adults to live with their parents.
The end of the government shutdown did not alter the broader economic trajectory, but it did create a sharp swing in the sequential pace of GDP growth within the November baseline outlook. As Washington refocuses on affordability and agencies restart delayed data releases, the coming weeks will offer clearer insight into how policy debates, price pressures, and election-year dynamics may shape the near-term environment.
Farm bankruptcies are rising, and the underlying pressures go well beyond this year’s turbulence in US-China relations, pointing to structural weaknesses that will continue to shape the agricultural outlook through 2026.
