Midterm voters seem to form their opinion around the economy in the summer and fall. How the economy, and especially the labor market, performs over the next few months will increasingly influence the outcome on Election Day.
Emma Pollard
The US attack on Venezuela over the weekend dramatically increases uncertainty about the future of its political regime, but the impacts for global oil prices and geopolitical tensions appear limited. Therefore, we won’t change our baseline forecast for the US economy.
Our supply-chain stress index rose in October after sticking within a narrow range over the past year. Volatile trade flows have been balanced by healthy inventory levels and low freight rates. Our index has remained within a tight range over the past year, despite large swings in trade volumes and changes in supply-chain routes due to tariffs.
We’re raising our forecast for light vehicle sales to 15.7mn next year to reflect improving affordability, the new-car loan interest tax break, and the continued spending strength of high-income households.
This study, commissioned by the Motion Picture Association (MPA), examines the five-episode Polish Netflix original limited series “Heweliusz” and analyzes its total economic impact in Poland during the 2024–2025 production period. The study also considers the broader effects of the series on the Polish economy.
This report provides the first look into the growing market of flexible earning opportunities providing human input and oversight into AI systems and their economic benefits.
Black and Hispanic households have experienced more inflation than other groups since the reopening of the economy from the pandemic lockdowns. Although there’ve been many phases of high inflation, some have disproportionately hurt these minority groups, such as the jump in energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the ensuing surge in rental inflation further setting them back.
Our supply chain stress index moderated in September as import volumes continue to decline following front loading activity earlier this year. High frequency data shows that this trend has kept up in Q4, meaning port congestion is unlikely to become a concern.
A household needed to earn an annual income of $110,100 to afford a single-family home and pay both property taxes and home insurance costs in Q3 2025, down 2.3% from the peak Q1 2025 ($112,700) but nearly twice that of Q3 2020.
The US macroeconomic implications are minor, and the resulting reduction in inflation next year is no more than just a handful of basis points.
An epic burst of capex from the tech sector to build AI and related infrastructure has driven a pick-up in borrowing, in the form of new loans, bond sales, and hybrid financing tied to specific projects. This demand for finance points to rising revenues and improved profitability in the US financial services sector while creating opportunities for businesses across the economy to scale their productivity by taking advantage of innovative technologies.
Unemployment is rising and wage growth is declining for young adults, which could have a long-term scarring impact. Weak labor market prospects and rising housing costs are causing more young adults to live with their parents.
The end of the government shutdown did not alter the broader economic trajectory, but it did create a sharp swing in the sequential pace of GDP growth within the November baseline outlook. As Washington refocuses on affordability and agencies restart delayed data releases, the coming weeks will offer clearer insight into how policy debates, price pressures, and election-year dynamics may shape the near-term environment.
Farm bankruptcies are rising, and the underlying pressures go well beyond this year’s turbulence in US-China relations, pointing to structural weaknesses that will continue to shape the agricultural outlook through 2026.
We expect this holiday shopping season to be the strongest in four years, but it will be disproportionately driven by older, wealthier households.
The surge in capital spending by U.S. technology providers is leading one of the largest investment cycles of the past half-century. Technology and other services sectors, such as in finance, transportation, and health care, are racing to upgrade their electronics and computer systems, develop new products that support adoption of artificial intelligence, construct new data centers, and expand power supply.
Half-built Britain – unlocking the nation’s infrastructure growth plans has been written for the Construction Plant-hire Association. It investigates how the government’s plans translate into action on the ground through the lens of three major policy releases over the summer of 2025—the Comprehensive Spending Review, Industrial Strategy, and National Infrastructure Strategy.
A recent agreement to lower tariffs on Chinese imports by 10 percentage points has nudged the US effective tariff rate down to 13.4% from 14.6%. This supports our view that the tariff-related drag on US activity and inflation is nearing its peak for the year. While a possible Supreme Court ruling could reduce tariffs further, the likelihood of sustained relief remains limited given alternative legal avenues available to reimpose tariffs.
With stock markets sitting at or near all-time highs, there is renewed attention on the consumption effects from fluctuations in household wealth. Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, significant gains in net wealth have driven almost a third of the increase in consumer spending. Despite an unfavorable backdrop, consumer spending will grow at a decent pace this year, largely thanks to the stock market rally that started in April.
Our analysis suggests that rising digital technology investment in the United States could significantly exceed consensus growth expectations for 2026.
