Emma Pollard, Author at Oxford Economics

An epic burst of capex from the tech sector to build AI and related infrastructure has driven a pick-up in borrowing, in the form of new loans, bond sales, and hybrid financing tied to specific projects. This demand for finance points to rising revenues and improved profitability in the US financial services sector while creating opportunities for businesses across the economy to scale their productivity by taking advantage of innovative technologies.

Unemployment is rising and wage growth is declining for young adults, which could have a long-term scarring impact. Weak labor market prospects and rising housing costs are causing more young adults to live with their parents.

The end of the government shutdown did not alter the broader economic trajectory, but it did create a sharp swing in the sequential pace of GDP growth within the November baseline outlook. As Washington refocuses on affordability and agencies restart delayed data releases, the coming weeks will offer clearer insight into how policy debates, price pressures, and election-year dynamics may shape the near-term environment.

Farm bankruptcies are rising, and the underlying pressures go well beyond this year’s turbulence in US-China relations, pointing to structural weaknesses that will continue to shape the agricultural outlook through 2026.

We expect this holiday shopping season to be the strongest in four years, but it will be disproportionately driven by older, wealthier households.

The surge in capital spending by U.S. technology providers is leading one of the largest investment cycles of the past half-century. Technology and other services sectors, such as in finance, transportation, and health care, are racing to upgrade their electronics and computer systems, develop new products that support adoption of artificial intelligence, construct new data centers, and expand power supply.

Half-built Britain – unlocking the nation’s infrastructure growth plans has been written for the Construction Plant-hire Association. It investigates how the government’s plans translate into action on the ground through the lens of three major policy releases over the summer of 2025—the Comprehensive Spending Review, Industrial Strategy, and National Infrastructure Strategy.

A recent agreement to lower tariffs on Chinese imports by 10 percentage points has nudged the US effective tariff rate down to 13.4% from 14.6%. This supports our view that the tariff-related drag on US activity and inflation is nearing its peak for the year. While a possible Supreme Court ruling could reduce tariffs further, the likelihood of sustained relief remains limited given alternative legal avenues available to reimpose tariffs.

With stock markets sitting at or near all-time highs, there is renewed attention on the consumption effects from fluctuations in household wealth. Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, significant gains in net wealth have driven almost a third of the increase in consumer spending. Despite an unfavorable backdrop, consumer spending will grow at a decent pace this year, largely thanks to the stock market rally that started in April.

Our analysis suggests that rising digital technology investment in the United States could significantly exceed consensus growth expectations for 2026.

Southern metros are set to see the greatest benefits from the reindustrialization agenda

Our survey of 1,000 senior leaders from the manufacturing, retail, and transportation and logistics sectors shows that improving workflows translates to a range of benefits, from financial gains to improved customer satisfaction and employee productivity.

Diverging fortunes across age and income groups reveal both resilience and fragility in the US consumer outlook.

Explore how shifting supply trends are shaping industrial, office, retail and residential real estate in 42 US metros. Download our infographic today.