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Emma Pollard

The rail supply industry plays a critical role in keeping the nation’s freight and passenger rail networks operating, investing, and modernizing. This new Oxford Economics study—supported by the Railway Supply Institute (RSI), REMSA, RTA, and Amtrak—provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of the industry’s economic footprint. Drawing on detailed operational and capital spending data across freight railroads, transit and commuter systems, and Amtrak, the report measures the activity that takes place within supplier firms, the activity supported through their domestic supply chains, and the additional economic activity generated by workers’ spending.

The disruption in oil prices due to the Iran conflict will have a disproportionate impact on low-income households, as they spend a larger share of their household budgets on fuel, food, utilities, and related necessities—the prices of which have already increased due to the war.

Oxford Economics, in collaboration with SAP, surveyed 300 senior decision-makers and strategists to better understand how leading organizations are transforming customer experience (CX) in an AI-driven business landscape.

Canada’s changing demographic dynamics have major implications at a subnational level.

We revised our forecast for consumer spending down in the second March baseline, released Friday, to reflect higher oil prices, which will deliver a bigger hit to households’ real incomes.

Our PCE nowcast estimates that the year-over-year headline PCE will hold steady at 2.8%, while core PCE will inch lower to 3%. Our updated estimate shows a 0.4% gain in both headline and core PCE prices in February.

The UK Industrial Strategy and National Infrastructure Pipeline have set out the UK government’s roadmap for growing a modern economy that has seen decades of underinvestment. It is a welcome change in approach and demonstrates tremendous ambition.

The US warehousing sector has undergone a profound transformation, evolving from traditional storage sites into high‑throughput logistics hubs that handle picking, packing, and goods movement at unprecedented scale. Employment has nearly tripled, mega‑facilities now anchor the industry’s footprint, and the mix of occupations has shifted toward item‑level fulfillment work, automation‑supported workflows, and increasingly technical roles.

Setting out where businesses are today, where they risk falling behind, and what actions can help them move forward with confidence. Read this report to understand the concrete steps that you can take to ensure AI will deliver lasting value for your organisation, your people and the UK economy.

Our January PCE nowcast points to a slightly stronger monthly gain than seen in the CPI report, with headline PCE rising 0.3% and core PCE increasing 0.4%. This would leave headline inflation steady at 2.9% year-over-year while core inflation edges up to 3.1% from 3% in December. Despite the uptick, slower unit labor costs and shelter-cost disinflation should keep core price pressures on a downward path, with core inflation expected to reach 2.3% by year-end.

The EU’s Tobacco Excise Directive set a harmonised framework for cigarette taxation, but our study shows that differences in the pace and scale of excise increases have contributed to a rise in illicit trade, especially in high-price Member States, and mixed cigarette excise revenue outcomes between 2011 and 2024 —highlighting the need for a more gradual and coordinated approach with the upcoming revision of the Tobacco Excise Directive.

The conflict in the Middle East will likely have significant implications for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies, with global spillovers largely limited to higher gas and oil prices.

The rapid deployment of generative and agentic AI in the financial services sector is expanding the scope of AI systems, forcing institutions to navigate a growing and unpredictable risk landscape. To mitigate the risk of operational failures and governance gaps, organizations need a consistent way to identify, measure, and disclose AI incidents, yet few such frameworks and studies exist today.

Tensions in Iran threaten global energy security through the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy trade route.

The White House has pivoted to a new tariff authority to impose a 10% global duty, with the possibility of a 15% rate still on the table. While the average effective tariff rate is only modestly lower than before, the shift introduces a new layer of policy uncertainty that could weigh on business decisions and the broader US outlook.

A jobless expansion, the growing role of financial wealth, and the impact of fiscal policy will widen the bifurcation of the consumer this year. The no-hire, no-fire labor market is delivering stability for most workers, but the young and underemployed are finding it increasingly difficult to gain a foothold. Lower inflation will help ease pressure, but will struggle to move the needle much, particularly for lower-income households.

While Kevin Warsh, the Trump administration’s nominee for Federal Reserve chair, was a more hawkish member of the Federal Open Market Committee during his term as Fed governor, his recent views have shifted in favor of rate cuts while remaining a consistent proponent of reducing the Fed’s balance sheet. He’s called for a new Treasury-Fed accord, outlining an agreement for a smaller balance sheet.

The production of The Pitt, Season One resulted in nearly $87 million in total spending across California in 2024. The production spent $62.2 million (72% of the total spend) on wages and salaries for local production cast and crew, and $24.8 million (28%) on goods and services supplied by local businesses.

The data released over the past week don’t warrant changes to our latest baseline forecast for growth to improve this year and for the Federal Reserve to keep policy steady until June.

Midterm voters seem to form their opinion around the economy in the summer and fall. How the economy, and especially the labor market, performs over the next few months will increasingly influence the outcome on Election Day.

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