Emma Pollard 
We forecast holiday retail sales to rise 4.2% in dollar terms and 2.2% in volume after adjusting for inflation. That would beat last year’s volume, when tariffs hurt sales and shifted purchases forward into October, but it trails a typical holiday season, reflecting the hit to spending power from higher energy prices.
Download the full report to uncover how respondents rate their experiences and how stadiums can tailor programming to attract more visitors year round.
Student loan policy changes are set to impact borrowers’ finances, affecting
spending habits and introducing new repayment plans for assistance.
Economic forecasts are shifting due to rising inflation and geopolitical
tensions, impacting consumer spending and investment. Discover more insights.
Heavy-duty transit buses are a critical component of America’s public transportation system, carrying approximately 3.8 billion passenger trips annually and representing nearly half of all public transit trips in the United States.
The report, commissioned by British American Tobacco examines the relationship between cigarette excise duty, prices and the illicit cigarette market in Brazil. It compares three periods of policy: substantial increases in excise duty between 2010 and 2017, broadly stable excise rates between 2017 and 2023, and renewed increases from 2024 onwards. The analysis focuses on changes in duty-paid and illicit cigarette consumption, price differentials and tax revenues, and considers the role of illicit supply, particularly from Paraguay.
PCE inflation remains steady amid rising oil prices, with signs of moderation in
housing and healthcare costs. Explore the latest insights on inflation trends.
Amazon commissioned Oxford Economics to measure the economic impact of independent sellers in its store in the US. The analysis combines confidential Amazon sales data and a survey of independent sellers.
Wealth effects significantly influence consumer spending, with fluctuations in asset values shaping household financial behavior. As we look ahead, the impact of these effects is expected to diminish, particularly influenced by the evolving role of artificial intelligence.
The auto sector is facing significant challenges as US-Canada trade relations worsen, with the introduction of 50% tariffs on select Canadian goods. This new tariff regime is expected to impact US GDP growth and consumer prices in the automotive market.
Treasury demand is evolving, with a notable shift towards more price-sensitive buyers amid changing market dynamics. While Treasury yields are expected to remain elevated in the near term, a gradual decline is anticipated as inflation pressures ease.
The current labor market is experiencing a delicate balance, characterized by weak hiring and a decline in job seekers. While demand for workers remains subdued, the supply of available labor has contracted more significantly.
Inflation remains a pressing concern, with the PCE index showing only slight progress in July. Headline PCE inflation is expected to decrease marginally to 3.6%, while core PCE inflation holds steady at 3.3%.
The US labour market is experiencing a significant slowdown, with the breakeven pace of monthly employment growth forecasted to decline from 50,000 today to zero next year, and potentially turn slightly negative by 2028. This trend suggests that the recent increases in nonfarm payrolls may not accurately reflect the market’s strength.
To understand the potential ramifications of changes in the economic relationship between the US and Canada, the Canadian American Business Council (CABC) commissioned Oxford Economics to undertake a study which takes stock of the US-Canada commercial relationship and assesses the likely economic consequences of three distinct potential outcomes of USMCA negotiations. The study utilizes a sophisticated, multi-model approach to quantify the risks of a potential dissolution of USMCA against the upside of a successful renegotiation of the agreement, both measured against a status quo scenario anchored to the bilateral tariff regime in effect in mid-2026, with impacts assessed across industries and down to the state and province levels.
Introducing Oxford Economics’ new granular urban model—our first Quantitative Spatial Equilibrium model—designed to forecast and visualise how cities evolve at neighbourhood scale.
The report evaluates how the fragmentation of antitrust enforcement could affect economies, communities, and markets. Drawing on evidence from the economic literature, policy case studies, and business survey analysis, we document that efforts to expand state antitrust authority pose a central trade‑off. While state‑level policy experimentation may offer some benefits, there are economic costs associated with regulatory fragmentation. This fragmentation can lead to greater legal complexity, uncertainty, and coordination challenges, with broader effects on investment, hiring, and merger activity.
Headline PCE inflation is projected to decelerate to 3.7% year-on-year in June, following a peak of over 4% in May. This decline is primarily driven by lower energy prices, which have a smaller weight in the PCE index compared to the CPI.
Explore how recent immigration crackdowns are affecting labor markets and job openings in key industries, with insights on future trends.
Inflation dynamics are shifting, prompting a reassessment of key measures. Explore the latest insights on inflation trends and the Fed’s approach.
