Diverging demographic outlooks for Canada’s metros

Our forecasts include the latest assumptions regarding immigration, fertility, and mortality rates through 2050. These inform our analysis of which regions are likely to see relative population gains and, therefore, where job and other economic growth are most prevalent.

• At the provincial level, Alberta stands out for its robust population growth over the past five years, with its strong job prospects attracting migrants from abroad and other parts of Canada. Meanwhile, Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador face the biggest hurdles in garnering population growth, which will remain roughly stagnant out to 2050. At the metro level, Calgary and Edmonton exhibit the fastest growth rates in Canada. Smaller metros in Ontario and Quebec have some of the slowest growth, with Thunder Bay and Saguenay facing marginal declines.