Research Briefing
With negotiations extending into the weekend amid fears of a stalemate, COP27 delegates finally agreed to set up a fund...
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Research Briefing
With negotiations extending into the weekend amid fears of a stalemate, COP27 delegates finally agreed to set up a fund...
Research Briefing
After nine months of devastating war, we expect Ukraine's economic contraction to reach 31% in 2022. Prompt monetary and fiscal policy responses and $23bn of external financing have prevented a much deeper contraction.
Research Briefing
Rising interest rates mean the BoE is now making a loss on the gilts it purchased under quantitative easing. With the Treasury committed to making the BoE's...
Research Briefing
Following the conclusion of HomeBuilder, rising property prices and interest rate hikes, first home buyer (FHB) demand has normalised to...
Research Briefing
We think the outlook for traditional winter sales in the eurozone is subdued this year and any boost won't be...
Research Briefing
Many cities in the world's advanced economies will enter recession in 2023, with soaring inflation and tightening monetary and fiscal...
Research Briefing
Policies aimed at managing China's housing slump have led investors to query the shape and depth of a market correction....
Research Briefing
Better fundamentals and fewer operational setbacks should lower gross gas use by the EU's power sector by 200TWh (5% of...
Research Briefing
We earlier argued that Asia’s manufacturing activity has been impacted more by demand than by supply-side pressures, due to strict Covid-related policies. Supply...
Research Briefing
We think China's exit from its zero-Covid policy will only happen in H2 2023 - a more cautious view than...
Research Briefing
We expect the Japanese economy to grow at 0.9% y/y in 2023, after 1.6% growth in 2022. Four reasons why...
Research Briefing
While our outlook for emerging markets (EMs) is more upbeat than for advanced economies (AEs), we have cut our 2023...
Research Briefing
As Russia's war in Ukraine enters a new phase, so does the economic crisis. Based on my conversations with locals...
Research Briefing
Policy divergence will continue to be a key theme in global FI markets in 2023. Whereas we pencil in a...
Research Briefing
The Hungarian economy is being hit by a perfect storm of shocks, particularly surging inflation and a weakening currency. Our...
Research Briefing
The strength of the US labor market, as demonstrated by the increase in job openings in September, will frustrate the...
Research Briefing
Sub-Saharan Africa will be at the very epicentre of global urbanisation over the next two decades, with the world’s top...
Research Briefing
Supply chain developments were mixed in October, but the implications for the outlook, particularly for inflation, are modest. The easing...
Research Briefing
Fiscal policy has begun to play a more active part in business cycle management. But while its role in pushing...
Research Briefing
Timely October trade data from North Asia are flashing warning signs that Asia's export downturn is gathering momentum. We think...