Research Briefing | Feb 7, 2023

Semiconductor manufacturing in Phoenix key to medium-term prospects

Although it still faces promising growth from the continued investment in new semiconductor facilities, Phoenix growth slowed somewhat in 2022. Its annual job growth rate of 4.0% was just below the US rate of 4.1% in 2022. Job growth was led by restaurants, retail trade, and ambulatory health care services. We forecast that Phoenix will see job growth of 1.8% in 2023 and an average job growth rate of 1.0% in 2024 through 2027, above the forecasted US rate of 0.5%.

What you will learn:

  • Phoenix had GDP growth of 3.0% in 2022, higher than the US growth of 2.0% last year. GDP growth was led by real estate and information. We forecast 2023 GDP growth of 0.3% and average annual GDP growth of 2.2% in 2024 through 2027, above the forecasted US rate of 1.8%.
  • Like a number of Sunbelt and Rocky Mountain metros, Phoenix has attracted a number of tech firms and workers to its region. Tech jobs grew 7.1% in 2022 and information sector GDP grew 13.4%. We forecast average annual job growth of 1.6% and GDP growth of 3.2% in 2023 through 2027 as it welcomes new semiconductor facilities for both Intel in Chandler and TSMC.
  • Like much of the Sunbelt, Phoenix saw net in-migration of 36,400 in 2022. This contributed to population growth of 1.2% in 2022. We forecast total net in-migration of 214,100 from 2023 to 2027 and population growth of 1.1% in 2023 through 2027, above the forecasted US rate of 0.4%.
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