Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained the policy rates at its September meeting, following a tweak in its yield curve...
Inflation
Are we now stuck in a high inflation world? Temporarily high inflation has lasted for longer than anyone predicted and inflation is set to rise further from here. Might we have actually entered into a new, higher, regime for inflation? Find out more about our GDP inflation forecast.
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 504 results
Research Briefing
As food tends to be purchased often and account for a large part in the consumption basket – 22% in...
Research Briefing
Most measures of inflation expectations eased in recent months, with the notable exceptions not as bad as they look. This...
Research Briefing
Despite today's (28th July) surprise tweak to YCC policy, we continue to believe that Governor Ueda is determined to avoid...
Research Briefing
Our in-house financial conditions index reveals that while overall conditions are tight compared to pre-pandemic levels, Asia's financial conditions have been improving thanks to central banks' pause in rate hikes,...
Research Briefing
Monetary policy is at a critical juncture. After decades of low and stable inflation, the seismic supply adverse shocks and...
Research Briefing
We expect downward pressure from multiple factors to push inflation lower by the end of 2023. Weaker demand and reduced...
Research Briefing
Monetary policy is at a critical juncture. After decades of low and stable inflation, the seismic supply adverse shocks and...
Research Briefing
We project Japan's CPI inflation will slow in H2 as import costs trend downward. The current record price passthrough is unsustainable given sluggish demand and firms' weak pricing power.
Research Briefing
After a choppy first quarter of GDP data, our novel Activity Trackers (which incorporate proprietary daily sentiment data from Penta)...
Research Briefing
We have revised up our long-term wage and inflation projections based on a larger impact from structural labour shortages due...
Research Briefing
Once pent-up demand from post-lockdown fades, we think that Asian economies will settle at lower GDP growth and higher inflation than our pre-pandemic forecasts. This means nominal interest rates are also likely to stay high in 2023-2024.
Research Briefing
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank and other stresses in the global banking system have triggered a sharp repricing in...
Research Briefing
We expect the Philippines' 10-year government bond yield to trend down in 2023-2024, after rising continuously since Q3 2020.
Research Briefing
We expect global inflation to return to pre-crisis levels faster than it took to reach its peak. While any number...
Research Briefing
While recent economic developments support the notion that economies aren't heading into a major economic downturn, a global recession remains...
Research Briefing
Japan's structural labour shortage has deepened. While it may not result in a wage-inflation spiral now, labour scarcity will put...
Research Briefing
We've created a real-time indicator – the US Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) – to assess the health of economic activity....
Research Briefing
After a difficult 2022 for UK households, we expect real income to fall 1.2% in 2023 due to a range...
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress fell at the beginning of the year and further easing is likely due to weaker domestic and...
