Research Briefing
Revisions to personal income and spending data suggest US households accumulated a smaller stock of excess savings and have depleted...
Inflation
Are we now stuck in a high inflation world? Temporarily high inflation has lasted for longer than anyone predicted and inflation is set to rise further from here. Might we have actually entered into a new, higher, regime for inflation? Find out more about our GDP inflation forecast.
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 513 results
Research Briefing
Central banks and many other forecasters may be underestimating the risk of persistently high inflation. While our view is that...
Research Briefing
Anything but a 75bps hike of the ECB's key policy rates after next week's council meeting would be a big...
Research Briefing
The evidence of the past year shows that inflation has been far from transitory. But we still believe supply factors...
Research Briefing
We expect Canada to enter a recession in Q4 2022 and as a result, most metros including Toronto, Montreal, and...
Research Briefing
The real-wages squeeze, slowing retail sales, and falling commodity and producer prices all point to inflation slowing down, albeit slowly....
Research Briefing
Our baseline economic outlook now assumes a mild US recession in the first half of 2023. Despite moderate improvement in...
Research Briefing
We expect a shallow but protracted recession in Finland from Q3 this year to Q1 2023, with a contraction of...
Research Briefing
Upward revisions to recent quarters have pushed up our Sweden growth forecast for 2022 to 3%. That said, we expect...
Research Briefing
Although the risk of hard energy rationing has diminished, demand destruction triggered by the surge in energy prices has led...
Research Briefing
The acceleration in nominal wage growth rates in Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies over the past couple of quarters...
Research Briefing
The MENA region is a key player in the energy sector as a large producer of oil and gas, but...
Research Briefing
We have long been expecting a dovish pivot from the ECB at the turn of the year as supply-driven core...
Research Briefing
A combination of recession on the horizon, high inflation forecasted for the short term and rapid central bank tightening is...
Research Briefing
The minutes from the July ECB meeting, when the bank ended the period of the negative interest rates in the...
Research Briefing
The Norway mainland GDP forecast has been raised 0.5ppts to 3% following a slight growth surprise in Q2 and a...
Our modelling suggests incorporating owner-occupied housing costs would lower eurozone headline inflation from Q3 2022 by 0.3ppts, with negative contributions...
Research Briefing
We have cut our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Finland by 0.3ppts to 0.5%. Although growth in Q2 remained resilient...
Research Briefing
We have increased our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Sweden by 0.4ppts to 2.4%, as growth in Q2 surprised on...
Research Briefing
We estimate consumer spending in the eurozone increased by 0.8% q/q in Q2, despite persistent elevated inflation denting real incomes...
