The Iran War’s Ripple Effects on Global Travel Transit

The Iran War is affecting global travel flows far beyond the Middle East. our analysis unpacks disruption across outbound demand, air connectivity, travel costs, and destination choice, with ripple effects for markets worldwide.

We previously explored tourism scenarios for the critical loss of travel to the Middle East; however, the region has also become an integral part of the global travel landscape. It is an important source market and a gateway hub linking inter-regional travel.

• Travel risk extends well beyond the region. We estimate that 116 million visits and 858 million nights outside the Middle East could be at risk this year.
• Multiple channels are driving disruption. The shock is flowing through reduced outbound travel from the Middle East, weaker transit through regional hubs, longer and costlier flight paths, and shifting traveler sentiment.
• Air connectivity is under pressure. Around 14% of global transit activity typically passes through Middle East airports, making rerouting, reduced capacity, and higher fares a major concern for long-haul travel.
• Higher fuel costs could further squeeze demand. Jet fuel disruption and broader energy market pressure may raise airline costs and airfares while also putting pressure on consumer spending.
• Some destinations may benefit from substitution. As travelers look for safer, more affordable alternatives, Southern European and select North African destinations could capture redirected demand.