Research Briefing
Inflation will likely decelerate in 2024 as the impact of imported inflation wanes. We expect the Bank of Japan will...
Wage inflation
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Research Briefing
More market participants appear to have become confident that the wage-driven inflation is real, which will encourage the Bank of...
Research Briefing
Japan's structural labour shortage has deepened. While it may not result in a wage-inflation spiral now, labour scarcity will put...
Research Briefing
There is no perfect measure of nominal wages – each has its own blemishes. So, we've created a wage tracker...
Research Briefing
The strength of the US labor market, as demonstrated by the increase in job openings in September, will frustrate the...
Research Briefing
Supply chain developments were mixed in October, but the implications for the outlook, particularly for inflation, are modest. The easing...
Research Briefing
Central banks and many other forecasters may be underestimating the risk of persistently high inflation. While our view is that...
Research Briefing
Supply chain strains eased in September after increasing slightly in August. Transportation pressures subsided the most of all our tracker's...
Research Briefing
The real-wages squeeze, slowing retail sales, and falling commodity and producer prices all point to inflation slowing down, albeit slowly....
Research Briefing
The minutes from the March ECB meeting showed that inflation continued to dominate Governing Council's discussions. The body remains split,...
Research Briefing
Our US supply-chain stress tracker points to less stress in November. Still, while transportation challenges eased, they remained the greatest...
Research Briefing
As of the September 2021 jobs report, leisure and hospitality employment sits 9% below its pre-pandemic level; this is three...
Research Briefing
It’s not runaway inflation, and it’s certainly not stagflation. In fact, the US economy is going through a bout of...
Research Briefing
The US economy is unlikely to experience an inflation regime shift. But after a decade of glacial price rises in...
Research Briefing
The South African government has been struggling to rein in the public sector wage bill in the past. This seems...
Research Briefing
The public sector wage bill is one of South Africa’s largest line items on the expenditure side, accounting for roughly...
