Research Briefing
US President Trump ordered a 25% tariff on autos and auto parts, starting on April 3.
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Research Briefing
President Trump ordered a 25% tariff on autos and auto parts, starting on April 3.
Research Briefing
Wealth effects proved to be a quite reliable tailwind to consumer spending this cycle.
Research Briefing
Our bottom-up framework of how imports feed into consumer spending identifies where we expect the largest tariff impacts.
Research Briefing
Our internal recession models support our opinion that a looming downturn is unlikely, despite rising recession risks.
Research Briefing
Tariff threats and heightened trade policy uncertainty began causing stress in supply chains.
Research Briefing
Despite weaker-than-expected gains in headline consumer and producer prices in February, the source data that feed into the PCE deflator...
Research Briefing
Cuts to the Federal government workforce, which we estimate to be 200,000 in 2025, will have a modest impact nationally,...
Research Briefing
Tariffs typically result in a one-off rise in the level of prices.
Research Briefing
A North American trade war unfolded in dramatic fashion this week.
Research Briefing
As consumer sentiment deteriorated, concerns about the outlook for consumer spending increased. While there's a statistically significant relationship between sentiment...
Research Briefing
On March 4, President Trump placed 25% blanket tariffs on Canada and Mexico, except Canadian energy products that would be...
Research Briefing
The nominal goods trade deficit was at its widest in January, signaling businesses had front-loaded goods shipments ahead of new...
Research Briefing
The Federal Reserve's policy strategy review is likely to codify what officials are already doing in practice – regular inflation...
Research Briefing
We will revise the forecast for federal employment significantly lower this year, and in subsequent years, because of the announced...
Research Briefing
First-quarter GDP is tracking weakly at 1% annualized, but we think a lot of the swings in the data are...
Research Briefing
For many households, tax refunds represent the biggest cash-flow event of the year. It's early, but we think this will...
Research Briefing
The risks to our participation rate forecast are numerous and largely weighted to the downside, implying unemployment could fall further.
Research Briefing
Concerns that the Trump administration would abandon climate policies were confirmed within hours of returning to office.
Research Briefing
With US President Trump's persistent tariff threats, a US-Canada trade war now appears likely.
