Research Briefing
Tariffs don't have to be imposed to wreak economic harm – threats are enough. So the recent flurry of announcements...
Tariffs
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Research Briefing
A North American trade war unfolded in dramatic fashion this week.
Research Briefing
Blanket 10% tariffs on EU exports to the US, now part of our baseline, will have a significant but uneven...
Research Briefing
The new US tariffs add an additional layer of drag on Asian manufacturing activities. India will be one of the...
Research Briefing
We think the immediate tariffs on China will have spillovers to some other Asian economies, while the threat of reciprocal...
Research Briefing
We see little evidence that inflation will take a significant turn for the worse, which suggests that the risks of...
Research Briefing
US President Donald Trump has announced or threatened a range of fresh tariffs in recent weeks. While we expect the...
Research Briefing
European pharmaceuticals, machinery, and high-tech goods are heavily exported to the US, making them vulnerable to across-the-board US tariffs. However,...
Tariff-induced price increases call into question tightly integrated supply chains across North America and make large swathes of exports less...
Research Briefing
The United States has introduced an additional 10% levy on Chinese imports as part of the opening round of the...
Research Briefing
The narrative surrounding policymaking and its near-term economic impact has shifted dramatically from the January to February baseline forecast.
Research Briefing
Related Services US Forecasting Service Access to short- and long-term analysis, scenarios and forecasts for the US economy. Find Out...
Tariffs act as a regressive tax on households as they are applied to imported goods, many of which fall into...
Research Briefing
The more aggressive ramp up in tariffs caused us to lower, but not slash, our forecast for real consumer spending...
Research Briefing
We have incorporated a 10% blanket tariff by the US and immediate retaliation by the EU in our forecast for...
Research Briefing
President Trump launched the first salvo in what will like turn into another global trade war. A 10% additional tariff...
Research Briefing
US President Donald Trump's announcement of an additional 10% tariff on imports from China was in line with our baseline expectation. But the immediacy of implementation, the blanket style of tariffs, and the inclusion...
Tariff-induced price increases call into question tightly integrated supply chains across North America and make large swathes of exports less...
Research Briefing
The potential damage to large swathes of industry in Mexico and Canada from blanket US tariffs could be devastating and...
Our short-term outlook for the global economy has a seen a small upwards revision due to the expected loosening of...
