Research Briefing
Our baseline economic outlook now assumes a mild US recession in the first half of 2023. Despite moderate improvement in...
Recession
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Research Briefing
We continue to believe the global economy will narrowly avoid a recession, despite expecting the US, Canada, and most of...
Research Briefing
Odds of a downturn in Canada have just crossed a tipping point and we now expect a moderate recession starting...
Research Briefing
Though global recession fears are mounting, our newly developed emerging markets activity trackers show most EMs are now outperforming compared...
Research Briefing
Sky-high gas prices and aggressive monetary policy tightening have pushed the global economy to the brink of a late 2022/early...
Research Briefing
Although the risk of hard energy rationing has diminished, demand destruction triggered by the surge in energy prices has led...
Research Briefing
We have long been expecting a dovish pivot from the ECB at the turn of the year as supply-driven core...
Research Briefing
A combination of recession on the horizon, high inflation forecasted for the short term and rapid central bank tightening is...
Research Briefing
The global economic outlook has continued to deteriorate. Since our previous global scenarios were released three months ago, we have...
Research Briefing
The minutes from the July ECB meeting, when the bank ended the period of the negative interest rates in the...
Research Briefing
The July Global Risk Survey was conducted at a time when central banks in major economies were sharply raising policy...
Research Briefing
The BoE today announced a 50bp rise in Bank Rate to 1.75%, despite publishing a forecast that suggests the UK...
Research Briefing
Increased borrowing costs are raising corporate default fears in the US, but we believe higher interest rates alone won't be...
Research Briefing
Recession risks are mounting globally, including in the eurozone. Growing recession fears have resulted in large drops in oil prices...
Research Briefing
The global economic outlook has shifted drastically in the three months since our last global real estate scenario research briefing. The war in...
Research Briefing
The global economic environment has shifted with international price inflation surging, monetary conditions being aggressively tightened, and a number of...
Research Briefing
The global economic outlook has deteriorated in the last quarter. With the Russia-Ukraine war the major concern.
Research Briefing
Inflationary pressures continue to build, with input costs rising at a rapid pace. The economic landscape is also constantly shifting:...
Research Briefing
Growth risks for the eurozone economy are leaning to the downside, according to our analysis. Our business cycle indicator and...
Research Briefing
UK households face a severe squeeze on their finances this year and have limited scope to cushion the blow by...
