Research Briefing
Our 2023 growth forecast of 4.5% for China is still 6-tenths below the consensus’ 5.1%, owing to a more cautious...
Monetary policy
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Research Briefing
A cautious 2023 budget amid the need to stabilize government finances post pandemic means that fiscal policy won't be able...
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress fell at the beginning of the year and further easing is likely due to weaker domestic and...
Research Briefing
Even without rate hikes, central banks' monetary policies can effectively tighten if the nominal neutral rate falls below the policy...
Research Briefing
In this new quarterly Research Briefing series, we answer the top five questions we've recently received from clients.
We think rapidly deteriorating demand and easing commodity prices will prompt the Czech National Bank (CNB) to start cutting rates at the end of Q2.
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy settings at today’s (18th Jan) meeting. At the same time, the BoJ...
Research Briefing
In December, the Bank of Japan surprised markets by widening the allowance corridor for the 10-year JGB yield target, aiming to fortify its Yield Curve Control policy. The shift effectively results in a tightening of monetary policy, although we think the impact on growth will be limited.
Research Briefing
Financial conditions have deteriorated across ASEAN-5 economies to varying degrees. As well as monetary tightening, a broad depreciation of currencies...
Research Briefing
The Czech National Bank (CNB) kept the policy rate unchanged at 7% for the fourth consecutive meeting today, in line...
Research Briefing
We doubt the surprise move from the Bank of Japan to expand the tolerance range for 10-year JGB yields to...
Research Briefing
The US economy will need a lot of luck to avoid a recession next year because the headwinds are about to intensify. We...
Research Briefing
Canada has likely just entered a moderate recession that will last for much of 2023.
Research Briefing
Financial conditions in Canada have tightened significantly this year and we estimate this will shave 0.7ppts off GDP growth by...
Research Briefing
Tightening US financial conditions over the past year will likely trim 0.2ppts from Q4 2022 GDP growth.
Research Briefing
We think the Bank of Korea (BoK) will continue to focus on inflation and the Korean won (KRW) even as headwinds to growth and financial stability rise. In our view, an extended...
Research Briefing
In a tough global environment, we are below consensus on advanced economy growth and anticipate most will fall into recession...
Research Briefing
Economists Arup Raha and Theng Theng Tan identify 5 themes that are likely to be important for Asia in 2023.
Research Briefing
Following a hard winter, we expect the Nordic economies to rebound from mid-2023 as falling inflation turns real incomes positive,...
Research Briefing
Much of the economic weakness we are currently witnessing will likely spill over into 2023. African economies' ability to deal...
