Research Briefing
The odds of our baseline view of most US tariffs on Canada and Mexico being removed by mid-2026 are decreasing....
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Research Briefing
President Trump ordered a 25% tariff on autos and auto parts, starting on April 3.
Research Briefing
We've lowered our GDP growth forecast for the US, Canada and Mexico, reflecting our assumption of more aggressive US tariff...
Research Briefing
On March 4, President Trump placed 25% blanket tariffs on Canada and Mexico, except Canadian energy products that would be...
Tariff-induced price increases call into question tightly integrated supply chains across North America and make large swathes of exports less...
Research Briefing
The potential damage to large swathes of industry in Mexico and Canada from blanket US tariffs could be devastating and...
Research Briefing
President Trump initiated a global trade war by announcing across-the-board tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. This development came sooner...
Research Briefing
A number of recession warnings were flashing yellow and red last year, but the economy didn't falter and entered the...
Research Briefing
President Donald Trump signed a slew of executive orders related to immigration, trade, and the federal government workplace, but these...
Research Briefing
Donald Trump's tariff threats for day one of his new presidency would have a heavy impact on the Mexican economy...
Research Briefing
We modelled two scenarios to examine how different tariffs from the US could influence Mexico and the wider Latin American...
Research Briefing
Since we adopted greater protectionism in our November US forecast, the risks to our baseline have become more balanced. But...
Research Briefing
Another Trump presidency will increase US fiscal stimulus, curb immigration, and lead to new tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico, and...
Research Briefing
We remain concerned about the potential fallout in Latin America from a second Trump presidency in areas other than a...
Research Briefing
GDP growth among Latin America's largest six economies will improve on the margin next year and surprise the consensus to...
Research Briefing
Our tool suggests India is a strong contender. Holding India back is its low productivity per worker and poor education...
Research Briefing
We expect a continuity of AMLO's policies, but Sheinbaum's ability to pass constitutional reforms with a supermajority in Congress and...
Consulting Report
This report demonstrates the integral role that the AV industry plays in Mexico's economy by estimating the industry’s domestic economic...
Research Briefing
The supply-shocks era represented the first time in a generation where inflation significantly eroded the real value of global public...
Research Briefing
We will retain our below-consensus 2024 GDP growth forecast of 1.9% for Mexico irrespective of the presidential election results on...
