Research Briefing
News-based measures show a sharp rise in uncertainty in early 2026, driven by geopolitics and tariffs. But survey evidence and...
Inflation Forecast
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 23 results
Research Briefing
We assume the disruption to shipping caused by maritime attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea will be relatively...
Research Briefing
We expect downward pressure from multiple factors to push inflation lower by the end of 2023. Weaker demand and reduced...
Research Briefing
We expect global inflation to return to pre-crisis levels faster than it took to reach its peak. While any number...
Research Briefing
While recent economic developments support the notion that economies aren't heading into a major economic downturn, a global recession remains...
Research Briefing
France has dodged soaring price pressures better than its eurozone peers, but we think its inflation will fall more slowly.
Research Briefing
The Czech National Bank (CNB) kept the policy rate unchanged at 7% for the fourth consecutive meeting today, in line...
Research Briefing
While nearly every metro in Canada will experience at least a minor recession between Q4 2022 and Q3 2023, on...
Research Briefing
We doubt the surprise move from the Bank of Japan to expand the tolerance range for 10-year JGB yields to...
Research Briefing
Canada has likely just entered a moderate recession that will last for much of 2023.
Research Briefing
The easing in supply chain stress is an encouraging sign for the US inflation outlook, but conditions continue to drag...
Research Briefing
The Federal Reserve knows that their mission to tame inflation isn’t complete, and odds are rising that the central bank...
Research Briefing
The 2023 outlook for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region will not compare to this year's spectacular expansion. That said,...
Research Briefing
Tightening US financial conditions over the past year will likely trim 0.2ppts from Q4 2022 GDP growth.
Research Briefing
Over 2023, we expect global food, energy, and goods inflation to fall sharply. That said, the degree to which services...
Research Briefing
In a tough global environment, we are below consensus on advanced economy growth and anticipate most will fall into recession...
Research Briefing
We expect the UK economy to be in recession for most of 2023, with activity dragged down by falling real...
Research Briefing
The global cycle is now rolling over and even if the recession is likely to be mild, the subsequent recovery...
Research Briefing
It's been a horrible period for EM portfolio debt flows. The better news is that broader capital flows to EMs...
Research Briefing
Bank Indonesia raised its policy rate by 50 bps at its last meeting on November 17, making for a total...
