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      Inflation Forecast

      News-based measures show a sharp rise in uncertainty in early 2026, driven by geopolitics and tariffs. But survey evidence and investment data paint a steadier picture. Are businesses seeing through the noise?

      Andrew Goodwin, Chief UK Economist at Oxford Economics, discusses UK interest rates, inflation, and energy costs with the BBC News at One.

      We assume the disruption to shipping caused by maritime attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea will be relatively short-lived and the recent spike in sea freight prices will reverse. While there will be near-term impacts for some firms and sectors, these won’t be enough to shift our baseline economic or inflation forecasts to any meaningful extent.

      middle east city

      Scott Livermore, our Chief Middle East Economist, joins AGBI to discuss Gulf inflation rates.

      We expect downward pressure from multiple factors to push inflation lower by the end of 2023. Weaker demand and reduced supply constraints are poised to ease stress in goods and services.

      We expect global inflation to return to pre-crisis levels faster than it took to reach its peak. While any number of shocks could derail this outcome, there’s a slew of data supporting our optimism.

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      Research Briefing | Mar 14, 2023

      Global Scenarios Service: Policy Peril

      While recent economic developments support the notion that economies aren’t heading into a major economic downturn, global economic prospects remain subdued. Inflation and monetary policy-related risks remain key near-term worries in our latest Global Risk Surveys, while geopolitical fears have also risen.

      This quarter’s Global Scenario report highlights the sensitivity of monetary policy to near-term inflationary developments ¬and explores the potential fall-out for the the global economy and financial markets.

      To find out more, fill in the form to download the executive summary of this quarter’s Global Scenarios report.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Mar 14, 2023

      Global Scenarios Service: Policy Peril

      While recent economic developments support the notion that economies aren’t heading into a major economic downturn, global economic prospects remain subdued. Inflation and monetary policy-related risks remain key near-term worries in our latest Global Risk Surveys, while geopolitical fears have also risen.

      This quarter’s Global Scenario report highlights the sensitivity of monetary policy to near-term inflationary developments ¬and explores the potential fall-out for the the global economy and financial markets.

      To find out more, fill in the form to download the executive summary of this quarter’s Global Scenarios report.

      Read more

      France has dodged soaring price pressures better than its eurozone peers, but we think its inflation will fall more slowly.

      The Czech National Bank (CNB) kept the policy rate unchanged at 7% for the fourth consecutive meeting today, in line with our and consensus forecast.

      While nearly every metro in Canada will experience at least a minor recession between Q4 2022 and Q3 2023, on an annual basis, six mostly smaller metros will escape a GDP contraction in 2023 as a whole: Lethbridge, St. John’s, Saskatoon, Regina, Calgary, and Barrie.

      We doubt the surprise move from the Bank of Japan to expand the tolerance range for 10-year JGB yields to +/-0.50%, from +/-0.25%, marks the start of a tightening cycle.

      Canada has likely just entered a moderate recession that will last for much of 2023.

      The easing in supply chain stress is an encouraging sign for the US inflation outlook, but conditions continue to drag on economic activity.

      The Federal Reserve knows that their mission to tame inflation isn’t complete, and odds are rising that the central bank raises the target range for the fed funds rate more than either we or financial market anticipate.

      The 2023 outlook for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region will not compare to this year’s spectacular expansion. That said, GDP in the region will grow at more than twice the pace we forecast for the global economy.

      Tightening US financial conditions over the past year will likely trim 0.2ppts from Q4 2022 GDP growth.

      Over 2023, we expect global food, energy, and goods inflation to fall sharply. That said, the degree to which services inflation declines will also determine how quickly headline CPI inflation drops.

      In a tough global environment, we are below consensus on advanced economy growth and anticipate most will fall into recession in 2023.

      We expect the UK economy to be in recession for most of 2023, with activity dragged down by falling real household income and tight policy settings.

      The global cycle is now rolling over and even if the recession is likely to be mild, the subsequent recovery will be disappointing. Yet we see ample opportunities going into 2023 given the dislocations in both safe and risk asset pricing this year.