Research Briefing
Our probability of recession models are approaching their zero bound and are at their lowest levels in more than two...
Recession Forecast
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Research Briefing
We've created a real-time indicator – the US Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) – to assess the health of economic activity....
Research Briefing
Our indicators suggest global economic sentiment is improving despite the impact of higher interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and the squeeze...
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress fell at the beginning of the year and further easing is likely due to weaker domestic and...
Our baseline economic outlook now assumes a mild US recession beginning in the second quarter of 2023. Despite recent moderation,...
Research Briefing
Despite sluggish demand growth prospects, advanced economies (AEs) automotives production growth is forecast to accelerate in 2023 as easing supply...
Research Briefing
While nearly every metro in Canada will experience at least a minor recession between Q4 2022 and Q3 2023, on...
Research Briefing
Canada has likely just entered a moderate recession that will last for much of 2023.
Research Briefing
Financial conditions in Canada have tightened significantly this year and we estimate this will shave 0.7ppts off GDP growth by...
Research Briefing
Tightening US financial conditions over the past year will likely trim 0.2ppts from Q4 2022 GDP growth.
Research Briefing
In a tough global environment, we are below consensus on advanced economy growth and anticipate most will fall into recession...
Research Briefing
There is no perfect measure of nominal wages – each has its own blemishes. So, we've created a wage tracker...
Research Briefing
Swings in oil prices pack less of an economic punch than in the past but sudden increases can still be...
Research Briefing
The outlook for Latin America changed dramatically after Russia's invasion of Ukraine last February.
Consulting Report
Labour markets across a range of advanced economies are cooling rapidly, according to a unique dataset developed by Oxford Economics...
Research Briefing
Our baseline forecast is now for world trade in goods to decline by 0.2% in 2023, a considerable downgrade from...
Research Briefing
The energy crisis will shape the macroeconomic outlook again in 2023, keeping the eurozone economy in recession at the start...
Research Briefing
We anticipate most advanced economies will fall into recession in 2023 and global growth will be weaker than the consensus...
Research Briefing
Many cities in the world's advanced economies will enter recession in 2023, with soaring inflation and tightening monetary and fiscal...
Research Briefing
While our outlook for emerging markets (EMs) is more upbeat than for advanced economies (AEs), we have cut our 2023...
