Research Briefing
Businesses are increasingly hoping for early policy rate cuts to counter the potential fallout from banking system strains. Compared with...
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Research Briefing
New research by Oxford Economics suggests that construction materials prices have shifted permanently higher due to the shocks of the...
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress eased in April, which will put downward pressure on goods prices and allow the Fed to pause...
Research Briefing
We receive many questions on the state of the US economy from clients. Here, we answer the top five most...
Research Briefing
The recent banking sector turmoil could trigger a chain reaction of events that plunges the global economy into recession. However,...
Research Briefing
The sharp fall in our US business cycle indicator in February signalled the economy lost momentum midway through Q1.
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress continued to ease in February despite stronger-than-expected economic growth. Supply chains could return to pre-pandemic conditions by...
Research Briefing
Cost and availability of financing are critical to the health of construction markets. With interest rates at historically low levels...
Research Briefing
The failure of two US banks caught financial markets by surprise but we believe the macroeconomic implications are minor and...
Research Briefing
Last week's liquidation of Silvergate Capital and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have raised questions about the risks...
Research Briefing
The incoming data likely warrant some adjustments to the baseline forecast, particularly for the path of the target range for...
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress fell at the beginning of the year and further easing is likely due to weaker domestic and...
Our baseline economic outlook now assumes a mild US recession beginning in the second quarter of 2023. Despite recent moderation,...
Research Briefing
Major shocks over the past two years have prompted US manufacturing firms to rethink their supply chains, with greater inventory...
Research Briefing
The latest Beige Book revealed an economy that on balance was treading water heading into 2023.
Research Briefing
The Federal Reserve knows that their mission to tame inflation isn’t complete, and odds are rising that the central bank...
Research Briefing
The 2023 outlook for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region will not compare to this year's spectacular expansion. That said,...
Research Briefing
Tightening US financial conditions over the past year will likely trim 0.2ppts from Q4 2022 GDP growth.
Research Briefing
We have cut our US industrial outlook to reflect rising interest rates and economic uncertainty.
Research Briefing
There is no perfect measure of nominal wages – each has its own blemishes. So, we've created a wage tracker...
