Research Briefing
The US/Israel-Iran conflict and the associated surge in energy prices have prompted us to revise our world GDP growth forecast...
Federal Reserve
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Research Briefing
While we mostly agree with Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's argument that the economy is in a supply-side expansion...
Research Briefing
Fed officials remain cautious amid rising inflation and ongoing policy uncertainty. The latest FOMC meeting highlights the challenges facing the...
Research Briefing
Higher unemployment among recent US graduates is driven by structural shifts in tech hiring and AI displacement. Labor force participation...
Research Briefing
Fears that President-elect Donald Trump would attempt to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell or meddle with the Federal Open...
Research Briefing
With the heighted policy uncertainty and volatility in the bond market, can the US sustain its economic edge in 2025?
Research Briefing
Treasuries have stumbled since the Federal Open Market Committee's aggressive 50bp rate cut in September, but our baseline longer-term outlook...
Research Briefing
Our nowcast of the US PCE deflators imply inflation is not falling as smoothly as we had anticipated. But it...
Research Briefing
The unemployment rate is arguably the most important statistic the Federal Reserve tracks as it assesses the risks to the...
Research Briefing
The onset of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle is typically positive for equities so long as the US economy avoids...
Research Briefing
The smaller-than-anticipated gain in July and the rise in the unemployment rate will give the perception that the Federal Reserve...
Research Briefing
The unemployment rate is on the rise and has caught the attention of the Federal Reserve and financial markets. We...
Research Briefing
During the next presidential term, the economy will receive a net boost from federal policymaking, and inflation will come in...
Research Briefing
Each month, we forecast the dozens of price categories that underlie the consumer price index, and our forecast is for...
Research Briefing
The economy slowed following the strong gains in the second half of last year, as it settled into a more...
Research Briefing
The minutes from the April 30-May 1 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee were uneventful, which is not surprising...
Research Briefing
The lower-than-expected increase in nonfarm payroll employment, along with declining job openings and quits, suggest that wage pressures are unlikely...
Research Briefing
Extensive academic research shows the importance of central bank independence in reducing inflation. Those institutions with strong operational independence from...
Research Briefing
The biggest surprise from the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting had nothing to do with interest rate...
Research Briefing
Our business cycle indicator shows the economy hit a rough patch at the start of the year but there is...
