US Key Themes 2025: A twist on US exceptionalism
Will the US continue to outperform its advanced economy peers in 2025?
The last 15 years can be generally characterised as American exceptionalism. US per capita GDP growth was the third strongest among advanced economies in 2023 and is poised to be among the best performers in 2024. With the heighted policy uncertainty and volatility in the bond market, can the US sustain its economic edge in 2025?
In our Research Briefing, we delve into five key questions shaping the US economic outlook for 2025:
- Will American exceptionalism endure? What factors will drive US economic growth in 2025? Is the US’s stronger productivity growth a flash in the pan?
- Is the investment boom set to continue? Which sectors will benefit from it?
- How will fiscal and monetary policy evolve? How will the new government’s fiscal and trade policies influence the Fed’s ability to tame inflation?
- What are the implications of less immigration and tariffs on growth and inflation? How will the new government’s policy influence immigration levels and consequently the supply of labour? How will tariffs affect international trade?
- Will 2025 be the year of bond market volatility? There are already some early warning signs that volatility will be a theme in 2025. The 10-year Treasury term premium, which compensates investors for bearing the risk of future interest rate fluctuations, has been climbing. To gauge the implications of the higher rise in long-term rates, we ran a few scenarios through the Oxford Economics Global Economic Model and revealed the results in our report.
Download the full report to uncover the detailed insights and forecasts.
Sign up for our webinar: US economic key themes for 2025
Join our webinar as our Chief US Economist, Ryan Sweet, shares our views on the US economic outlook and discusses the five key themes expected to dominate the economic landscape in 2025.
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