Global Key Themes 2025: Global resilience gives way to uncertainty
Trade disruption, volatility in prices and a new policy mix will determine the winners and losers in 2025.
Global growth is highly likely to hold steady in 2025, but beneath the surface the new US administration and China’s struggles are set to usher in a new, more mercantilist era for the global economy. Trade disruption, volatility in prices and a new policy mix will determine the winners and losers.
In our Research Briefing, we dive into the key questions shaping the global economic outlook for 2025, including the following:
- Will US economic exceptionalism persist in 2025, and at what cost? The US is set to outperform consensus expectations and its advanced economy peers. But the gains from strong US demand in 2025 will be tempered by the increasingly obvious costs of trade disruption, tighter financial conditions, and heightened geopolitical risk.
- Will the global economy see a resurgence in inflation or a return to sustained lowflation? Exchange rates, energy prices, import prices, and financing costs are all likely to fluctuate next year as the new US administration’s agenda becomes clear. While the immediate impact on consumer prices will be small, it will build over time.
- How will fiscal and trade policies influence economic growth? Policy rate cuts won’t provide much of a boost to growth next year. Instead the US administration’s fiscal and trade policies and the reactions they elicit from China and the EU are likely to drive diverging sectoral fortunes.
Download the full report to uncover insights and answers to these pivotal questions.
Sign up for our webinar: Key global economic themes for 2025
There is a strong consensus amongst forecasters that global growth is likely to hold broadly stable next year. While we see little reason to disagree, in our latest webinar we highlight the key themes which we think will have a crucial bearing on next year’s likely relative winners and losers.
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