Research Briefing
Central banks and many other forecasters may be underestimating the risk of persistently high inflation. While our view is that...
Economic Forecast
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Research Briefing
Egyptian authorities met with IMF staff on the sidelines of the IMF and the World Bank annual meetings held in...
Research Briefing
We do not believe the moderate recession forecast this winter and the deepening housing correction completely undermines the medium-term case...
Research Briefing
The new UK Chancellor's decision to reverse almost all September's mini-Budget tax cuts plus action to limit the cost of...
Research Briefing
In our view, the IMF's recent downgrade of its global GDP growth forecast looks too optimistic. The IMF estimates that...
Research Briefing
African purchasing managers' index (PMI) readings for Q3 2022 reflect economic weakness on the continent and we expect GDP data...
Research Briefing
We expect eurozone industrial production to contract by a cumulative 3% over the next few quarters due to the severe...
Research Briefing
We estimate the recent surge in swap rates – a key driver of mortgage rates – means that UK house...
Research Briefing
Further moderate downgrades to the near-term outlook for advanced economies (AEs) have pushed our global GDP forecast perilously close to...
As spiralling energy prices threaten to cause huge pain for consumers and businesses, governments across Europe are rolling out initiatives...
Research Briefing
The Global Climate Service quantifies the macroeconomic impacts of five climate scenarios against a stated policies baseline. These scenarios help...
Research Briefing
The government's levelling up ambition has probably been made more, not less, difficult by the new "Plan for Growth". Policies...
Research Briefing
Although it has benefited from a rapidly growing tech sector, Denver’s net job growth since the start of the pandemic...
Research Briefing
Although it has recovered its lost film jobs and then some, Los Angeles shows a net decline of 0.8% since...
Research Briefing
Houston’s GDP is forecast to have declined 0.1% so far in 2022, with declining petrol and coal product manufacturing in...
Research Briefing
Still topping the charts on nearly every economic metric, Austin’s economy remains on fire. Its net growth since the start...
Research Briefing
The 50 largest metros will narrowly avoid a recession in 2022 but half will not escape one in 2023. In...
Research Briefing
The impact of the lockdowns and Covid-19-related restrictions in China were severe in the second quarter of 2022. We have...
Research Briefing
We expect Canada to enter a recession in Q4 2022 and as a result, most metros including Toronto, Montreal, and...
Research Briefing
We do not expect a long-lasting rebound in sterling (or gilts) anytime soon, given the lack of a credible fiscal...
