Research Briefing | Oct 3, 2022

Global Climate Service: Pathways to a fair transition

The Global Climate Service quantifies the macroeconomic impacts of five climate scenarios against a stated policies baseline. These scenarios help businesses understand the trade-offs and implications of climate mitigation.

We have created a new thematic scenario – Sustainable Development – that models a more pragmatic, equitable agenda for the drastic reduction of global emissions. It is relevant ahead of November’s COP27, where fairness and justice in the global transition will be key themes.

What you will learn:

  • In the new Sustainable Development scenario, The Paris Agreement’s collective goal of a ”well below 2°C” pathway is achieved. But the policy burden falls heavily on advanced economies, countries with currently credible net zero 2050 pledges and those historically responsible for the largest share of global emissions (i.e. China & Russia).
  • All current net zero pledges are achieved in full. Advanced economies reach net zero emissions by 2050, China & Russia around 2060, and all other countries by 2070 at the latest. We assume no carbon capture such that net and gross emissions are equal.
  • Carbon pricing and energy investment remain key policy levers, but with significant regional variation. Regulation prevents multinational corporations from exploiting these differentials and offshoring emissions to emerging markets.
  • Despite variation in policy uptake, there is universal progress in electrification, energy efficiency and renewable expansion due to international cooperation and associated technological diffusion.
  • Our Sustainable Development scenario sees a smaller cumulative cost to global GDP than our Net Zero scenario despite ending lower at 1.6% below baseline levels by 2050. The economic costs of climate mitigation are heavily skewed towards advanced economies and e.g. China due to their greater role in global mitigation.
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